31 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: My word of caution is extreme for today, just a day away from budget.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

31 January 2017: -

On 30 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 607.36 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 40.04 Crs

What to observe from upcoming union budget? Normally, budget has no greater impact for more than one two days. Well, I have something which market will definitely look for. This is Long term capital gain tax and the definition of long term capital gain.

The second important point is service tax structure. We almost know that there is a possibility of big hike in service tax. Both may have adverse impact on market. If finance minister surprise market positively then only market can head higher. If it head higher then we need to talk about 9000. Charts are not supportive for 9000 so sooner. In adverse impact we can easily see a wash out of 300 points of Nifty.

For today’s trading also I am expecting market to open in line with SGX Nifty and immediate support should be at 8600 levels. It is looking like another gap down but it will not get any great follow up. Market will be either nervous or it may see dull trade in waiting mode. I see a higher chance of waiting mode.

Event is big and event is going to historical. What am I expecting from budget? Truly, I am expecting nothing. Budget is just a sentimental factor. It has nothing to do with dynamics.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I have nothing great to change from my previous analysis. It can take support at 8600 kind of levels but I am not sure if it can be good to enter in to trade now. It has higher chance of turning choppy in 30-40 points of zone. Just stay away of big move does not start on down side.   

BANK NIFTY February future – I am keeping my study unchanged for Bank Nifty. Is 20000 still reachable. Yes it can but it may have a possibility of missing. Today is decisive day if bulls like to buy the dip. If it fails then 20000 may not come sooner. Immediate technical support is at 18600-18500 kind of levels which is too far. How far this is, we will see this today. One thing- do not prefer to trade long.  

30 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Budget week – if today’s gap down sustains then this can turn into “CAUTION”.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

30 January 2017: -

On 27 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 211.77 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 482.52 Crs

Union budget 2017 is coming this week. Pre budget rally has done? Now, market has to be realistic to enter in to budget. Technical target on upper is done or not? It is a big question. Right now I can see that SGX Nifty is trading in red. This gap down is crucial.

What I can say about gap down is this, “If a gap down coming after multiple day of rally and market maintains the gap till close then it has higher chance of becoming the medium to short term top.”

For today’s trading also I am expecting market to open in line with SGX Nifty and immediate support should be at 8600 levels. I can equally quote that market is far far away from the technical level of panic. Hence, it is too early to say about a top although chances are there.

Event is big and event is going to historical. What am I expecting from budget? Truly, I am expecting nothing. Budget is just a sentimental factor. It has nothing to do with dynamics.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty February future – 8700 to 8740 was crucial and seems market is about to turn cautious now. If gap down sustain then it may give up many good points. If it breaks 8600 then we have chance to see a slide up to 8500 to 8470 levels. Can we get this kind of big moves before budget? I cannot say exactly.

BANK NIFTY February future – Is 20000 still reachable. Yes it can but it may have a possibility of missing. Today is decisive day if bulls like to buy the dip. If it fails then 20000 may not come sooner. Immediate technical support is at 18600-18500 kind of levels which is too far. How far this is, we will see this today. One thing- do not prefer to trade long.  

27 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is up till budget and next technical target can be 8740. Too up to handle.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

27 January 2017: -

On 25 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 1378.81 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 383.03 Crs

We are inching close to budget day and market is building its expectation. It is moving forward with great momentum and breaking all possible resistances. Should we change the view which I build up in past year based on Elliott wave chart? I can say that this kind of phase of euphoric optimism may not able to change the view.

I know that this market can move on higher side but budget day will definitely be a shocker. In true sense market has already overdone. Although I am expecting that it can hit 8740 in this process.

For today’s trading also I am expecting another gap up opening. Technical resistances are too far to deal hence it may be another full day up move. It has bright possibility of hitting 8740 before budget. I am not participating in index rise this time as fall will not come with warning sign. On do not need technical support but you can expect a firm support at 8550 kind of levels.   

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I have projected for 8600+ levels. Well, it is now looking for a move above 8740. It can be a gap opening. Back to back gap up and up does not allow us to trade with any good comfort. One has to gather good courage to trade long. Shorting will not be any option as of now.

BANK NIFTY February future – If market has to move forward then we can expect targets like 20000 on February month future. Technical support is expected to be on 19300. As long as it holds 19300 targets of 20000 will remain open. There is no scope of shorting as of now, does not matter what kind of signal comes in intraday session. 

25 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is up and it has every chance to remain up till budget.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

25 January 2017: -

On 24 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 93.95 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 533.49 Crs

Well, we have derivative expiry today. A trend simply suggests that now I cannot expect this market to go down on expiry day. I am poor in predicting expiry day and I always feel that expiry day usually moves without any clues. This whole month turns bad for me as market never goes down while I was anticipating a down month hence I am not active on index now.

A simple charting suggests that market should move higher to hit 8550 – 8600 as it has closed above 8470. Now, if market to go give top then that top will not be anticipated by many people. My basic theory for next top is that it will come when least number of people will expect about it. This kind of top is usually very hard to predict.

For today’s trading also I may not opt to trade index, it does not matter how high it moves. Will it move higher? So far, charts are saying that it can make a beginning of new up move to end up expiry. 8470 is a key threshold. Let us see how it closes for the day and expiry.  

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It is like to see opening around 8540 levels as indicated by SGX Nifty. What we can expect on expiry day. Nifty future can zoom to 8600+ levels in short covering rise. It does not make sense to expect fall on expiry day as many traders may have trapped with shorts and still waiting for exit. A forced covering can be a potential source of rise.

BANK NIFTY January future – It has closed above 19000 levels and it is not looking weak. Is it tired? I cannot use such words on expiry day. If it gets real strength then it can hit 19300 levels. Expectation is one thing but it is very hard to treat expiry day. In the lower side 18900 is going to be a key support. 

24 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Simple suggestion – Do not deal index till Budget!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

24 January 2017: -

On 20 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 288.80 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 519.99 Crs

Frankly, this kind of moves makes trader tired. I am just not going to deal more till budget. It’s a frustrating market with on great direction. I am almost sure that market will not get anything much from budget. It’s unnecessary resilience against market dynamics. I am feeling that market had given one hint of this happening with development of “W” pattern.

It is my speculation that Nifty can take a swing of 300-500 points on budget day. My speculation is based on study of historical patterns on pre-budget days. I am concluding this based on my study of 15 days moves before budget every year.

For today’s trading I may not opt to trade index. I am feeling to trade stocks only which are more comfortable. Nifty will not do anything. Do not expect anything even on derivative expiry day. Only good thing is that I am confident plan for budget day. I have same old levels for the day. On higher side resistance will be at 8440 and 8470. In the lower side meaningful support is at 8360 and 8330.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Nifty future took a bounce yesterday and this was not making sense on chart. Only thing that I can say that market do not want to fall before budget. I must remind that nothing has changed on Elliott wave long term chart. Market is bound to fail at top. January future is likely to hit levels like 8440 to 8470.  

BANK NIFTY January future – I was expecting 18500 and it reversed yesterday. Well, this makes me feel that nothing is going to happen next for many days. It will just invite traders to do mistake. If one wants to deal then prefer to take trades for not more than 100 points. This is the only way to trade. I am still not very sure that it can show similar kind of strength after budget. 

23 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We can expect extension of the fall which began on Friday. Expecting – 8280!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

23 January 2017: -

On 20 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 26.34 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 175.48 Crs

It finally gave up form levels above 8400. I was expecting this but it took so long. Today will be litmus test for market. If it fails today also then one can expect levels of 8300-8280 levels. I am expecting this to happen. First technical confirmation of fall is that it has closed below 8360 levels. Logically it should test at least 8280 kind of support levels. If it has not given fall with quarterly result then it should give fall post result. We have derivative expiry this Wednesday and we have budget coming next week. Market has every reason to be nervous.

For today’s trading I am expecting market to give soft opening and then a slide. Well, 8330 can also be a support but I do not think that it can hold. Technical resistance will emerge at 8400 and 8435 levels. I am not taking this as sector specific fall. Equally, I am almost sure that market will get nothing from budget. If budget has rescheduled before election then it is bound to be populist budget.

Let us see how things will shape up.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Nifty future took too long to fall. It has wasted my attempt of adding put options. Technical support is at 8330 and if this breaks then we can expect levels of 8280 by today or tomorrow. Technical resistance for Nifty Future is at 8400 which is not likely to cross.

BANK NIFTY January future – It gave up from resistance levels and came to the lower levels. It has chance of hitting 18500 now. Let us see how it will react at opening. I do not think that Bank Nifty can hit higher without correction. In terms of price it has already slipped from higher levels and gave up well nearly 400 points. It’s going to be tricky expiry this week.

19 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can it able to hold 8400 levels? A correction deserves but denying so far.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

19 January 2017: -

On 17 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 142.20 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 607.23 Crs

I do not find any great reason to change my study. It is a pausing market but not giving up. I do not have technical reasons to justify this kind of market moves. Rather I can say that it has happened many times in past years. I am almost sure that market has denied fall due to budget coming closer. I am very sure that this rise will end on extreme brutal note. Who knows yearly high will once again comes in January February month.

For today’s trading I am expecting resistance in the zone of 8440+levels once again. I am saying that it is going to face hurdle on each rise if comes. Ideally, it deserves a price correction. As it is in time correction mode so I cannot specify with confidence that correction will come. Once again as long as it is above 8360 we cannot think for a meaningful correction.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – My study remains same. It has slipped from higher levels but not down much as I was expecting. Technical support is at 8370-8360 levels. One must wait for this down break side to trade short.  If it does not then it can just move dull in this range. Let us see, if can give decisive move anytime now.

BANK NIFTY January future – I am keeping my analysis same for Bank Nifty. It went above 19000 with ease. Technical resistance will emerge at 19180-19200. There is no meaningful correction from past 1000 points of rise. Will it correct today? Let us see. It is not very easy to expect correction in the market which runs on optimism.  

18 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Down move will start only if it breaks 8360 levels. Market needs a desperate break!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

18 January 2017: -

On 17 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 142.20 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 607.23 Crs

My study remains same. Nifty hits a high around my suggested levels and goes down a little. Is it safer to short? Well, as long as it is above 8360 levels, I cannot say that this is down with firm mode. I can say that market should fall but I am not getting a good confirmation for fall. Global market is soft but Indian market hold current levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting resistance in the zone of 8428-8435 levels once again. This should be decisive. It needs to break below 8360 to say for confirm down move or you can say a profit taking. If it breaks 8360 then we can expect a fall towards 8300 levels.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It has slipped from higher levels but not down much as I was expecting. Technical support is at 8370-8360 levels. One must wait for this down break side to trade short.  If it does not then it can just move dull in this range. Let us see, if can give decisive move anytime now.

BANK NIFTY January future – I am keeping my analysis same for Bank Nifty. It went above 19000 with ease. Technical resistance will emerge at 19180-19200. There is no meaningful correction from past 1000 points of rise. Will it correct today? Let us see. It is not very easy to expect correction in the market which runs on optimism.  

17 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Zone of 8428-8435 will be a zone of resistance. Will it cross? It’s a big question.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

17 January 2017: -

On 16 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 347.25 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 203.45 Crs

It’s Bank Nifty which is giving a good to real good thrust to the market. It is more like a pre-budget rally kind of thing which market is enjoying. If market is enjoying a pre-budget rally then I must add that market should not hope much from budget. This budget is coming just before elections in many states and hence it has every chance to become a populist budget.  

For today’s trading I am expecting resistance in the zone of 8428-8435 levels. This is decisive. Will it cross or will it fail. It should fail and it deserves a correction. Well, it is my anticipation and we still running short of trading signal correction. I can expect a trading signal of short if Nifty goes below 8360 levels. Well, now a day it is too big to say about 50 points fall. Yesterday’s low was 8375 only.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – I have quoted support of 8380-8370 yesterday and I was expecting the break of this support. It goes reverse and went up. So far, I am wrong on my correction call. For today, resistance is at 8460-8470 levels. I am expecting a desperate correction. My strong view it that it must come and it must come now.

BANK NIFTY January future – Bank Nifty is shocking me a lot with its rise. It went above 19000 with ease. Technical resistance will emerge at 19180-19200. There is no meaningful correction from past 1000 points of rise. Will it correct today? Let us see. It is not very easy to expect correction in the market which runs on optimism.  

16 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Beginning of decisive week and a possibility of fall of 2% anytime now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

16 January 2017: -

On 13 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 117.59 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 473.50 Crs

Well, I have presented the snap of one of my system. It is giving me a hint of fall. Top which hit in very first minutes of Friday’s session may remain top for the rest of the month? If I am right then market is all set to take a drop of nearly 2% this week. I am expecting the levels of 8200 or nearby. There is no point to trade long. One must note that right now many global markets are showing the sell signal.

For today’s trading we can expect some soft opening as indicated by SGX Nifty. Technical support is at 8370-8360 levels. If this can break in initial minutes then market will under grip of bears for sometimes. I am seeing the immediate possibility of 8300 levels. On higher side 8430 and 8470 levels will act as tougher resistance to cross.

A big question – Can I say that 8460 is a high for this quarter? Well, why not if this week goes for even negative closing.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – I have added positions on 8300 put options after losing money on short position on Nifty future. I am sure that can I recover and make more than what I lost. If Nifty future breaks 8380-8370 on lower side then we can see a possible fall towards 8300-8250 levels immediately. Technical signal to trade will emerge if it breaks the levels of 8370.

BANK NIFTY January future – Bank Nifty is not yet giving me a clear view. One thing is for sure that 19000 will as decisive resistance. I am expecting a fall towards 18600 levels. I can see the possibility of fall this week. Every higher level will be a zone of resistance and it should be utilized by traders to trade on short side.  

12 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8430 is expected to be next talked levels but a top must be very near.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

12 January 2017: -

On 11 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 627.30 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1116.15 Crs

I failed to see this kind of rise. I was expecting top around 8250 or below but so far it has extended by nearly 2%. It has surpassed 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. Now the next meaningful resistance is at 8430. Will this resistance turn to be a top? Let us see we will get the answer today. This rise is against many odds. We are near to result season and we are seeing a rise while I was expecting a nervous sell off.

For today’s trading we can expect some encouraging opening again as it has closed yesterday on high point of the day. Technical resistance is at 8430. Rise is rise and we must accept this. I still advise strong caution. Take a note that most top used to come with excessive optimism something like what is happening right now in the market. These may be euphoric top.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – It took out 8300 and in a gap up opening and came very near to 8400. I lost money in my short deals which I booked after gap up. Now, I on buy side on put option. I am definitely not willing to trade long as I am almost sure that rise has high chance to be proven as trap.  

BANK NIFTY January future – It is definitely the banking index which has given a great boost to the market. It does not matter what is happening on fundamental front technical charts are extremely over bought. It suddenly went up after a phase of underperformance. It may be a reflection of upcoming number. Profit taking deserves at this point of time. I have levels on it as of now. May be 19000 should not come so easily. I have no trade on this index so far in this month. 

11 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another attempt is possible for 8300 levels. A toppy pattern is possible anytime sooner.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

11 January 2017: -

On 10 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 21.20 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 253.36 Crs

Nifty came near to 8300 again. If this has to make a top then this can be the level. Question is will it make a top? I can say that if top comes here then it has completed a formation of “W” pattern. This pattern has a hallmark trade that it would not give easy break of the range. Hence I do not believe that much upside has left for market.

Yesterday market opened on strong note that closed on stronger note.

For today’s trading we can expect some encouraging opening and this may give a feel a feel of break out. I have strong doubt that it will be a break out. I am not going to recommend any levels for the day but it is my anticipation that Nifty may fail in the range of 8320-8340 levels. My plan is to predict a top and short. Will it work on shorting? So far, this rise has not given anything much to bears.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Few days back it was near to 8330 and it may take such attempt again as shown by SGX Nifty. Will it sustain? I see a high possibility of truncation based on levels. Can momentum sustain ahead of quarterly results? We need a negative close to see change in trading trend which is not impossible even after gap up. I will update more on twitter.

BANK NIFTY January future – This is performing better than Nifty now and in fact it has driven Nifty so far to a good extent. Technical charts are justifying for 18600 levels. My view is that a top must be near. It is just repeating December month levels. Its purely my anticipation and technical confirmation has yet to come. Let us see how it comes and when it comes. 

10 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Unable to update premarket analysis!!!

oodmorning to all respected readers,
Extremely sorry for inconvenience as I am unable to update detail view for today.
Presenting a quick view for the day -
Nifty January Future has support @ 8230 while resistance is at 8300-8330.
There is no question of shorting unless it go below 8230. Till that time it is UP.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar

09 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Ahead of quarterly numbers, bulls must be on extreme caution.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

09 January 2017: -

On 06 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 255.21 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 165.29 Crs

Nifty has tested 8300 and then took a drop from higher points. It was expected. Well, now the big question is what is going to happen next. Global market is still firm. US market is on extremely higher note. S&P 500 US hit a new all-time high on Friday. A factor which is saving Indian market from a fall is still active. This is the only reason that I was not very active on Index in December month series.

For today’s trading I am expecting a follow up of selling which has started on Friday. If this happens then we can see a possibility of 8200 on Nifty. On higher side 8275 and 8307 is a decisive resistance. I have advised caution on Friday and I am recommending caution even today. It is definitely hard to say for bigger fall as global indices are firm. Upcoming quarterly is expected to be worse from bad and I am expecting impact on Indian market.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – If Nifty has falling form 8300 and came to close just at 8240 then it must be a signal for Nifty too. Technical support for Nifty future is at 8230 which was acting as resistance in rise. Will it break 8230? It is not impossible and I am expecting. Well, so far it is not a call it is my expectation. If it breaks 8230 then I can expect a panic sell off.   

BANK NIFTY January future – It has underperformed Nifty whole week but took a ride on Friday. It has happened to make an equalizer. When Bank Nifty contributes blue-chip stocks has slipped. I am expecting a resistance at 18360. If it crossed 18400 levels then it can see another rise towards 18600-18700. If not then it has to be back to 18000-17800. Second case is more likely. 

06 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today’s high can turn to be a possible trap for bulls. 101% be cautious and stay away from long.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

06 January 2017: -

On 05 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 86.88 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 449.07 Crs

Nifty came very near to 8300 levels. This is definitely against my expectation. In fact every time it comes above 8200-8250 zones it refuses to give up easily although market used to fail to get buyers at higher levels. I can say, “When it looks all good it will turn to be all bad.” Hence, I can say that this higher level invites a trap at these levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat to positive start. Bank Nifty is relatively weaker than index or one can say a under performer. Sectoral indices should be better than bluechip index if it has to sustain at top and that’s the cue I am taking as higher levels caution. I have no levels to talk as I have presented a chart. It is my view that Nifty should not stand tall above 8300. There is no point to believe up.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – This is a shocker for me. A gap up trade from 8204 to almost 8250 and this gap up maintains with follow up of up side. Is market shaping for another gap up. Charts are not saying that gap up is possible or it can sustain. 101%, be cautious today. I will not deal at all on long side.  

BANK NIFTY – Well, one can talk and one can think for 18300-18400 on Bank nifty but I see a possible failure at top. Who knows if top comes in just first 15 minutes of trade. Technical support is at 18050-18000 levels. I can trade on top shorting. I want to pick a top before I deal.  

04 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market is not able to find many buyers above 8200 levels. Be cautious.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

04 January 2017: -

On 03 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 500.49 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 562.27 Crs

We can sense that market is struggling above 8200 and it is not able to find more buyers. I can say that if Indian market is showing any resilience then it is due to the fact that major global indices are running higher specially US market. Market got news that we will have Union budget within less a month now. So, market need to prepare itself for Budget too.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat start as it is due to the impact of good rise in US market.  Technical resistance will emerge again at 8220-8230 levels. Technical support is in the range of 8150 to 8130 again. Well, same levels and I have same views. Some days US market will face resistance and retrace the rise and we will came to know about reality of Indian market.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – My study remains same. It is showing for a start at 8200 as of now. Well, in my view market will not able to sustain at higher side. It may give up its gain sooner or later. Technical resistance is at 8225-8240. In the down side it will have support at 8150. Can it break? If it breaks then we can expect a good fall. It does not matter if it happens today or tomorrow.

BANK NIFTY – This index is weaker than Nifty. If blue chip index has to see a fall then I can see a possibility of first fall on this index itself. Technical support is at 17900 and we can expect the test of 17900 sooner or may be by today itself. Below 17900 we can expect a panic or panic like movements. On higher side, it cannot be safer unless it go above 18300 levels. 

03 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8130 is a key support; if it breaks then we can expect 8000-7900 again. Sooner or later?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

03 January 2017: -

On 02 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 260.64 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 20.66 Crs

Does yesterday’s rebound from lower levels have meaning? Well, on technical chart it was again a move which is comparable to the bounce after breaking 7916. Right now, we are almost on 300 points higher than the recent low and we are on crucial resistance. I cannot deny some more upside but any great extension of this rebound is not looking promising. We will see resistance emerging at 8200 and then at 8240 and final resistance will be at 8275 levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat start. This flat start is only because almost all global indices are trading higher. Technical support is at 8130 levels. Can it break 8130? I have no answer but if it breaks then only expect weakness in the market. I must say that we are entering in the reason season and I am expecting nervousness. This is my view and I am waiting for good technical confirmation to trade on this view.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – SGX Nifty is showing for a start at 8200 as of now. Well, in my view market will not able to sustain at higher side. It may give up its gain sooner or later. Technical resistance is at 8225-8240. In the down side it will have support at 8150. Can it break? If it breaks then we can expect a good fall. It does not matter if it happens today or tomorrow.

BANK NIFTY – I must say that BANK NIFTY is not as good as nifty. It will have hurdle at 18000 levels. It may not be easier to break 18000-18100 kind of levels. If banking stocks fails to support market then we can expect a fresh wave of dip and Bank Nifty should be worse hit in this process. A sell signal can emerge sooner or later. 

02 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Welcome to 2017!!! Hoping to start year on bullish note but caution needed at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

02 January 2017: -

On 30 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 585.64 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 725.26 Crs

Welcome to the New Year and wishing all of you a very happy New Year.

Most global market has closed today. This may be prime reason that I am not expecting market to move in broader range. Technical charts may be looking for up and I am expecting that market will remain up but trading range may not be broad. Charts are suggesting that we can expect resistance above 8250 levels. Big question is that can we expect 8250. Well, if it has to test 8250 then it should deliver today only. In the absence of follow up buying market will fall again. Note that we are going to be in earning season next week.

For today’s trading I am expecting that market will open on dull note. Technical support is at 8150 and on higher side we need a kick start above 8200 levels. If this happens then I can expect a fresh up wave today. I am issue a sign of warning. It has high chance to make a weekly today or may be at 8250 – 8280 kind of levels. In the lower side if it breaks 8150 then we have no point to be on long side.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Once again I do not want to be bearish. Technical support will emerge at 8150 levels. As long as it above 8150 we have chance to be on higher side. Technical resistance is at 8210. Can it able to surpass above 8120? If this happens then we can expect a fresh rise of 60-80 points. Let us see what comes. Higher chance for a up trade or choppy trade with upside. Do not trade if range is limited.  

BANK NIFTY – I am still saying at 18300 is a decisive resistance. On higher side it will have potential to hit 18300. Let us see if this can hit this level or not. In the lower side support can emerge only at 18000 levels. Can we expect a good move? If it has to come then it should come for rise only although this rise will not sustain for taking positional long.