You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
29 December 2016: -
On 28 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 527.06 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 824.84 Crs
8100 is a high point on dot and it was quite expected. Well, high was
good but closing turn worse and giving a sense that market has done with its recovery.
We have derivative expiry for this month series. I am expecting that expiry
should go below 8000 levels. Is this alarming expiry? I am not taking any view
for January month so far but expiry is likely to be on weak note.
Usually, top and bottom used to be that levels where market does not
used to stay. Recent top and bottom used to trade for more than expected time
on intraday basis. It looks like market reverse every time after conviction.
For today’s trading I am expecting opening on weak to dull note. Technical
support is at 8000 levels. If it breaks and sustain below 8000 levels then we
can expect levels to go much lower under the expiry effect. Expiry day cannot
be within the scope of prediction and I do not like to trade this day. Technical
resistance is only at 8100. Somehow expiry is almost dull on month to month
move. Still, second half of this month turn eventful and I am expecting the
impact to be greater today.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty January
future – Nifty January month future is likely to be open around 8040 levels
as indicated by SGX Nifty. Technical support is at 8030 to 8020 levels. If this
breaks this support range then it has higher chance of giving up of 50-60
points. This is likely to happen in second half if it has to come. On higher
side only 8100 and 8120 is meaningful resistance.
BANK NIFTY – BANK NIFTY has
also given up yesterday and closed on the levels which can be alarming. Technical
support is at 17750. If it breaks 17750 then we can again expect lower levels.
Can we expect things to be so easily on expiry day? Well, it may not be. Some tricky
moves are very much likely. Technical resistance is at 18000.
