You
must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
Today’s
outlook: -
From
past more than a moth Nifty is not doing much during trading hours. It is just
too frustrating for intraday traders. Indian market has denied many negative
global cues and even after fall of more than 200 points from high we are doing
better than many other global indices.
You
can say it is the optimism over reforms. Well, time is running short even for
prime minister. I have a view, if reform as to come then perhaps we are at the
last levels of index. Break below current levels might be an indication for ‘no
reforms’.
For
today,
Keep
an eye on 5100-5090 levels in gap down. We must not close below those on hourly
basis. I cannot conclude anything about the magnitude of fall or recovery after
gap down. I have just one conclude and that is related with the above support. Let
us see.
Best
technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average –
Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011 , it started rising from 5 June
2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from
5 June 2012itself.
Wave
development: -
I am
revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked
end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194
(raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it
was saving.
Take
another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)
Wave
5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.
Consider
first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that
5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.
Wave
5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was
already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have
two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of
wave 2, i.e. 5409.
So
you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory
suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about
5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in
my studies.
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Thanks
& Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
Mail
id – Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile
number – 09893369889
