You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
18 November 2016: -
On 17 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 983.93 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1144.15 Crs
This is the impact of currency demonetization will have impact on
quarterly number. This is the fact that market is now scared about. Well, I am
expecting technical support to emerge in between 8050-8000 but so far I am
unable to see any sign of revival. If this goes in this way then one has to
prepare for a massive slide. I have already said that this can be bear market
pullback which may be denied.
I am not very convinced with technical signal for bounce but I am
convinced with one clue for not shorting without bounce. Technical support for
the day is at 8050-8000 levels. Sooner after a pullback Nifty will be hunted by
bears for 10% dip from the top of pullback levels. Roughly it can be 7500,
which I am seeing for 31st December 2016. Figures can be worse than
my expectation.
For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening but I am not very
convinced for the bounce yet although I have soft long on index which I may
give up. Let us see if we can get support or Nifty will hit 8000. What market
is needed as booster dose is – Rate cut.
Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty November
future – I have a soft long on Nifty from yesterday but I may not hold my
long too long. I may give up today. I am expecting a recovery based on Elliott
wave levels but we have no concrete sign so far. If slide continues then it can
be bleeding. 101% this may not be time to do many adventures. I cannot say
about exact levels for support. It may be at 8050…
BANK NIFTY – I am not that
firm on my view for bounce now. Today is the last day. If it comes then it is
fine else I may look to trade short. This may not be easy to short without any
bounce but traders will not left with many choice. Below 19000, who knows what
kind of levels will start to come.
