You must read previous articles and
watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
It was another dull close yesterday.
Nifty has failed to sustain above 6000 marks. I am expressing my fear from past
few days that market is not comfortable above 6000 marks. Now, we have Infosys
result today. It may try to react now. Charting formation is going in favor of
bears.
You can watch the trend line. It is
breaking on lower side. It is more like a wedge pattern which is breaking on
lower side. As it failing at higher levels so we can conclude in coming days
that perhaps we have already formed a short term top.
I have already discussed about the
negative divergence on MACD and many more technical indicators. Now we are
slipping below crucial trend line too. You need to know that advance and
decline ratio was also supporting bears yesterday.
On 10 January
2013 , FII
bought INR 249.50 crs and DII sold INR 433.14 crs.
Now, if you look at Nifty hourly
chart then you can notice the downward channel which is actually forth wave. It
is corrective in nature. I believe that it can give up 61.80% of wave 3. In
that process we will get levels near 5915 to 5900. So, the question is, “Will
we bounce to make fifth wave”?
I cannot conclude those yet and we
need to wait for time.
I must like to add that many global
indices looks tired now. Many markets are turning cautious before earning season.
Indian market is still moving with rise in banking stocks. I feel that at
current price many stocks are discounting even upcoming (hope) rate cut.
Conclusion Nifty: Nifty has failed at higher levels
again. I have already said about the resistance of 6024 and 6042. We are
slipping from higher levels and broken 5980 marks on closing basis too. It should
give Nifty towards 5940 and then 5915 also. Yesterday we have seen a slow at
5947. If you are a regular readers then you must be aware that I have high
lighted VIX in past which have hinted me the same things well in advance.
S&P 500 – It was quoted for short from
levels nearer to 1470. Right now (while compiling this article) S&P 500 is
trading near to 1450. It is confirming that correction may continue. Technical
charts are suggesting for last support at 1445-1440 levels. I am still
suggesting standing on short side and keeping wider and flexible stop losses. No
change in study as market is flat in my views.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
