You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 02 May
2013: -
On 30 April
2013, FII bought INR 876.93 crs and DII sold INR 347.17 crs.
In the
last trading session fall was saved by massive rise in HUL stock price. We had
a Holiday yesterday where US market fell sharply on data and fed concerns. We have
entered in May month series. I have already discussed the previous history of
May month. We have seen selling in every May month from past three years. It is
scientific but stock market follows some sequences. Sometime it is called as ‘summer
sell off’. In my view, upcoming price correction is not going to be normal. There
may be some data development or policy development or anything but something
will come to bring it down.
We got negative divergence from 5828 on hourly chart, which has acted
again from higher levels in the last trading session and pulled it down. Technical
charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I have
already quoted earlier also for 5869 as crucial levels which was just tested in
the last trading session.
Indian market
is going to take cues from tomorrow’s RBI policy meet where we most positive
are already factored out. For Nifty it has 5971 as logical resistance and it
was just close in the last session but missed somehow and slipped. Technical charts
will be again applied in same way. I have two broader ranges to apply right
now. On higher side, it will get resistance at 5971 and in the lower side
support will be at 5869. Trigger point for selling will be at 5844.
Strategy
for Nifty May future – So far, market is
looking to make a higher start. I would be more comfortable if Nifty future
also start trading below 5867 marks. It may looks far but the way we got
selling in USA, we can expect something big now. On higher side it will get
resistance at 5980 levels. We have RBI policy tomorrow and hence today’s
closing will be important. I will not surprise if market swing in fast 100
points range.
S&P
500
– I will again say as long as it sustain below 1598, I will expect a fall. I will
not focus on reasons too much but we got some opening in the last trading
session. Technical charts are suggesting this is will convert in to May month
selling. If S&P 500 starts trading below 1572 then we will see a decisive
dip. Well, do not expect a quicker bulls bounce easily once it breaks 1572. I cannot
factor out the possibility of one day silence but it is ready for heading lower
and significantly lower.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
