Tuesday, 23 February 2016

23 February 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Avoid long if this fails @ 7260. A good rally can extend above 7260 only.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
For 23 February 2016: -

On 22 February 2015: FII Net Sold – INR 656.93:  DII Net Bought – INR – 597.87
I have already quoted for a possibility of 7260 yesterday on twitter. Well, it was very close but not crossed yet. So for today we may see first meaningful resistance at 7260 levels. There is a development on chart. We can see a slow rising wedge pattern formation. Wave theory suggests that we HAVE to be CAUTIOUS now.
For today’s trading session, if it can stand above 7260 then it is fine. If not then avoid long from this levels. Well, in term of support market can make multiple attempts for long as long as it is above 7200 levels. We are close to expiry and I am expecting expiry on higher note before union budget. This is my hope.
Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.
It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.
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Strategy for Nifty March future – I am dealing March Future now. Technically, if this can stand above 7300 only we can expect extension of gain. Today may be a decisive day. I strongly suggest that one can trade long only on strength.

S&P 500 (USA) – We got the most expected 1945 levels on S&P. I said this possibility clearly when it has saved 1800 levels. It turned a great recovery so far. Now it is next level of challenge to surpass 1945-1960 levels. Will it happen? Well, it is not going to be easy in anyway. Equally it is a tougher resistance to cross. If it can cross then it can save market for medium term. If it fall from here then it can be again a tough time bulls.