You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 17
April 2013: -
On 16 April
2013, FII bought INR 591.75 crs and DII sold INR 204.89 crs.
We have
seen massive recovery in Indian market and it denied all negative cues from
USA. Prime reasons for this rise were hope of rate cut in up-coming monetary
policy review and easing crude oil price. Hopes were also there from Reliance
result which delivered good numbers after-market hours. Numbers are good but
not good enough to see any good rise. (I would not surprise after moderate high
and fall).
There were
few remarkable formations yesterday. First is, Nifty moved above 200 DMA very
easily. It was never looking like we were crossing 200 DMA. This is was a good
part.
It is not
that everything was good only. Look at India VIX. When Nifty gained by 2.30%
VIX slipped only by 2.20%. This fall on VIX is not as per market movement. This
indicates that traders are still fearful towards this rise. Now, suppose if VIX
stay above 16 for today also then we might be near to another leg of sell off
in coming few days.
Well, we
have seen recovery in USA market last night but it is not generating pleasant
development. If Indian market is rising on hope of rate cut then I must say
that I am also expecting rate cut. I am saying one more thing that banking
stocks has already done comparing to the hopes.
Corporate
earnings in India are not as strong as USA. Indian market will soon begin the
phase of underperformance. Today’s trading is crucial. I will look for follow
up trading. Nifty will have trading resistance at 5710 < 5730 and then final
at 5800 levels which I am not expecting to come.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – Charts were
demanding for trades below 5500 to go lower but that condition never came. Driven
by banking index, it may try to maintain higher levels but we have gradual
resistance at higher side. If you take rough calculation then you can observe
that we got 250-300 points of recovery after each fall. In my view 5720-5725 is
a critical zone of resistance. In the lower side if it sustain below 5675 for
5-10 minutes then we can see dip towards 5625 in few hours.
S&P
500
– A recovery came after Boston blast. Is it changing things a lot? In my view,
this pullback cam for good for bears only. It may not be trap for bears like
after-job-data rise. I am not expecting a re-test of higher levels like 1590.
We are going to get a higher levels fall again. Surely, bears had not easy deal
in past few months so traditionally this may test patience. If market get a bad
after good day then things will be critical. Is it coming?
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
