You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 08
March 2013: -
On 07 March
2013, FII bought INR 630.47 crs and DII sold INR 715.11 crs.
It was
trading dull till 2:40 pm yesterday and then suddenly changes its mood. It has
seen total of 48 points of rise after 2:40 pm. It was excessive shorting which
has invited short covering and market moved to such levels. No pull back were
able to change market mood in past more than a month but this is the strongest
pullback till now.
I
subdivided current fall in a-b-c wave only. More importantly, Nifty has crossed
100 SMA yesterday which was at 5842 levels. It is a stronger crossover which
came by crushing bears. It may try to move towards the peak of ‘b’ wave which
is at 5971. One must note that rise may not be as simple as I am writing. Today
is 5th day from the bottom at 5663. On charts it is looking stronger
and it has generated support at 5800. It is giving me a sense that trading will
be ‘buy in fall’ now. Previously, it was sell on rise.
I have
still quoting a resistance at 5889 which might play important role. Looking on
RSI and MACD, it is turning stronger for recovery. There is one thing which is
still making me lesser confident to be bull and demanding caution. It is ‘H&S’
pattern.
What ‘H&S’
pattern is saying? It is a characteristic that it needs to break n-line and
then try to re-test before decisive fall. Many times this pattern says for consolidation
near to n-line before breaking. Near to RBI policy on 19 March, it will play
its role in the best case of consolidation.
Strategy
for Nifty March future – It said for the
break below 5808 which never came and hit a low only at 5816. If rise comes in
last 30 minutes then it can be very hard to conclude. Cross over of 5899 is
generating target at 5924 levels. Further cross will give 5956 to 6000 levels
on rise. It is hinting for support at 5880 now. If it trades below 5880 then
only we can expect weakness else it can grind higher like Dow Jones.
S&P
500
– It has another high at 1545 levels. For intraday it took at low at 1538. It
is still hard to say for any remarkable fall as we are not getting even single
negative day. It is suggesting that US indices are getting lot to low support.
If it is really true then just a break below 1538 can do some trading damage. I
will not bet for rise. It should not cross 1552 and any break below 1538 will
push indices back. I can say anything confidently at least one on negative
close. Technical indicators are dead for S&P 500. Shall I buy? Noway.
