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For 06 February 2015: -
On 05 February 2015, FII Sold INR 27.43 crs and DII Bought
INR 325.61 crs
One more bounce hit from the support of 8700-8685 but got
sold brutally in last hour of trade. It has two big reasons. First is,
consistent less than expected earnings, especially by PSU banks. Second is,
fear before Delhi election outcome. Things are just not for BJP as good as
previous state election. Fear is that they may fail to impress. So the only
hope for market is – upcoming union budget.
If budget will not be good enough then I cannot deny the
possibility of a big 10% correction in market. If that has to happen then
market may try to give up now. So, here is something which is not favouring a
pre-budget rally.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a cautious
opening. If it sustain below 8685 then we can expect a fall towards 8640 to
8630 levels immediately. Fibonacci series is suggesting for key support at 8600
levels. This suggests that today may be a make or break levels before
elections.
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Strategy for Nifty February
future – It is likely
to open at 8730 -8720 levels. Technical charts are suggesting for a quick wash
towards 8650 levels. I fear that we should avoid buying for lower levels. I cannot
say that any higher levels can turn safer. Think – market sold even 8890 levels
yesterday and two big quantities of Nifty future got sold yesterday on NSE.
S&P 500 (USA) – A rise came above 2050 again. Above
2050, I still say be bearish. It has happened too many times in past more than
two months and S&P failed each and every single time. We cannot expect
things to go in favour of bulls unless it crosses 2100 levels on higher side. I
know it is very big levels which I am talking about but this is only way to use
this bull’s trap. Somehow my wave charts are hinting me for a move towards 1900
levels by this month itself without cross above 2100. If this is the target
which I am looking for then I have reasons to be bearish even at 2060+ levels.
