You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 06
February 2013: -
On 05
February 2013, FII bought INR 489.27 crs and DII sold INR 938.92 crs.
It is
looking FII may try to reduce their intensity of buying. They used to buy INR 800-900
crs daily but yesterday picked only of INR 489 crs. We need to understand first
that Indian market is refusing to accept all positive global cues. Even now
when DOW JONES gained by 100 points, Japan trading 2.70% higher then also SGX
nifty is trading on dull note. It is just gaining only 4-5 points.
Yesterday,
Nifty slipped by 0.51% but Nifty midcap 50 slipped over 1%. I have repeated
many times that this kind of activity generally happen near to the top and so
it is happening. Our market is falling from past six trading days without any
big reason. At some points it can spread panic in the market.
VIX gains
by 1.88% yesterday and giving signs of further fall. It was quoted that VIX
will change its direction without braking 12. It hit a low at 12.57 and
rebounded. Now it is at 14.61.
Hourly chart
goes in oversold zone which might give us one intraday pullback. I need to
strongly suggest that it is not a compulsion. It may happen or may not happen. If
we can rise in over bought zone (happened many times) so why cannot it fall in
over sold zone. If I am saying about recovery then I am looking towards global
cues only which is strongly.
I have no
reason to explain why Indian market is refusing to accept positive cues. It is
showing that we have some wrong in a big way.
Pure technical
suggest that if it is saving 5940 then it can try to rebound. It should try to
come near to 6000 marks. I am again repeating, all recovery will be sold in
coming days. Do try to conclude for bottom. ‘Negative divergence’ on prime
indicator will give more pain. Fall of 150 points from top is just the
beginning.
Strategy
for Nifty February future – I said yesterday
that it needs to save 5960 if it wants to rebound. It hit a low at 5964 but not
closed on any strong note. Well, I will still say as long as it is saving
5960-5950 support then we can see a rebound near 6000-6020 marks. Take a note
that one rebound came yesterday but not sustained. My charts are saying that it
will fail before 6020. Should I buy for bounce? I need to be clear that I will
short and only short this market on rise and I am strongly betting on the test
or break of 5900 too.
S&P
500
– This is moving beyond the best of my sense. It has recovered all its Monday’s
loss. There is no sign of weakness. Whichever was coming for weakness has again
saved. Take a note that as long as it is above 1490, we cannot bet for
weakness. I can conclude that people are taking adventurous risk as they have
easy money. I need to be honest, it is rising but I cannot say that it should raise
more. It strongly deserves fall. It is not only USA which is on euphoric rise
but Japan is also on the same way. When will these markets correct? Will they
ever correct?
Is India a
hot destination for global investors? Do not follow media based speculation.
Technical charts are saying that Indian market were never the hot favorite. It was
just an opportunistic pick. If FII are buying in cash then also they are making
proper hedging in derivative.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
