You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
28 December 2016: -
On 26 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 712.17 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1502.41 Crs
Well, I was hoping for a bounce to mild bounce and we got a massive
bounce in second half, especially in last one hour. So has it not proved that
market has trapped those who went short on the break of 7916, ideally a break
of lower low? I came off my shorts on the break of 7916 and added long. Fine, I
am not forwarding any long as we are close to expiry.
Whatever we have seen yesterday was the impact of expiry and a big
trap. Be aware, such moves with goes against technical may continue. Market
will convince one for the direction and then it will reverse. Call it fall
again? It is too early to say but nothing is impossible.
For today’s trading I am expecting an encouraging opening again which
will invite bulls to take a play but rise should not be as good as yesterday. I
have no plan to trade today as I have played the long deals yesterday only. if
I have to trade then I will definitely trade long only. Chances are that we
will not see any fall today but I must warn I am use to be less correct near to
expiry or you can say that this is my fear days. Technical support is at 7970
and on higher side even 8100 is not impossible till tomorrow.
Technical momentum indicators like MACD is giving a clear sell which
is saying that this fall may have more pain. This is my medium term outlook.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty January
future – I hardly traded Nifty Future in December month. I may opt to be
aggressive on January month trade as this is going to be decisive. Take a note
that global market may not be very active. Technical support is at lower end
and a clear direction may come next week but this is up so far. It has chance
to hit 8100+ levels with technical support at 8030 and next at 8000 levels.
BANK NIFTY – BANK NIFTY bounce
is expected to continue. Technical support may emerge at 17750 levels. I am
expecting a test of 18000+ levels to invite greed. I cannot say the outcome of
greed levels. May be, it will work in favour of bears. We have seen rise and
rise is expect to continue for today.
