You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 27 October 2016: -
On 26 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1450.65 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 989.46 Crs
Today is derivative expiry and this is used to be most avoidable day
for me. Well, still I have added some short yesterday on anticipation of a down
expiry. Expiry is bound to be very uncertain day but I am seeing the
possibility of 8500. It is hard to say if it comes today or tomorrow or next
week.
I was firm on my view that a possible top should come at 8740 and we
saw a higher at 8740 and then a fall. Now, if I am right then I can see a possibility
of hitting 8500 levels. With that, I see a very high chance of breaking 8500
this time. I definitely like to see the closing for expiry and the kind of
rollover.
For today’s trading session I am suggesting that if you want to
peaceful DIWALI then just do not be bull. Do not buy anything and believe my
long term view. Think, if it breaks 8600 today then we may have a chance of
8500. I will not be buyer at any cost.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested
for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first
to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty November
future –November future contract has seen close below 8680 and this is definitely
alarming. Firstly I like to see if this can break 8630 then I will focus on
8600. If it breaks below 8600 then I am sure that expiry will go on very lower
note. May be, at the lowest point of the day. Let us see where it can end. It will
be direction for next month.
BANK NIFTY – It has broken
19500 and now looking to retrace the fall towards 19200 levels. How will it
fall? Will it be smooth? Well, my answer is yes. If this works then fall can be
deeper below 19200 also. If it turns a black expiry then bank nifty will see
more weakness and I will not be surprise to see 19000 levels. BANK NIFTY may
see follow up selling.
