You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 19
September 2013: -
On 18
September 2013, FII Bought INR 580.13 crs and DII Sold INR 508.41 crs
Ben
Barnanke has behaved like god. Last night, he took a complete “U turn”. He said
for stimulus to continue as economy data has not improved yet. Now, when he is
saying that economy data has not improved we need to note that data is better
than the time when he spoke about rollback of stimulus.
He makes
majority of market man fool. Surely, I am also one such who went wrong. In fact,
I always fail to predict Ben Barnanke’s views. He always turned the table of
majority. When one man in the world has this much power then we cannot do much
except waiting for his decisions.
The next
question – When will Fed begin tapering? They will decide by October end or
December. Now I have a doubt. Can they afford tapering? How long can Fed
continue like this. I cannot be sure for equity price to stay higher but Gold
is surely going to move higher.
India is
at a place where it should feel big relief although we have our own domestic
challenges. With one fed decision many problem has solved for India, like
currency will appreciate, scope of rate cut by banks to handle growth. It is
looking like best time for RBI to grasp opportunity. I mean that RBI should opt
for rate cut in tomorrow’s RBI policy but I am not ready to take a call.
Market will
take forth wild gap up and banking stocks will be way higher to catch. I am
giving the reading of gap ups. One must note.
First is
from 5545 to 5554 on 05th September 2013
Second is
from 5674 to 5738 on 10th September 2013
Third is
from 5846 to 5930 on 16th September 2013
Forth is
coming now 5910 to perhaps 6050+ on 19th September 2013
Technical analysis
has no meaning after this kind of gap up. I can quote technical resistance
which is at 6067 and 6100. Let us see what is going to happen after gap up. I have
only one call which is long on Gold where I can enjoy (Note – my long were
advisable in dollar from 1300). I have small shorts too in stocks where I am
trapped. Definitely, I have not yet shorted banks so I am not worried much. Equally,
I may prefer to short this gap up heavily if I get technical sell. I bought
5300 to 5200 in fall where everyone was bearish. Now at 6000 to 6100 if most
people would be bullish then I will short.
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty September future – Nifty future is
likely to near 6100 levels crushing all bears. Is it really going to crush all
bears or will it invite bears. Only time can answer. It is better to see
opening. I doubt that it will open this much higher which SGX Nifty is showing.
Banking stocks will be on big big fire to save any fall.
S&P 500 – I give
up to Ben Barnanke. I shocked me to my wildest extent. Thanks god that I waited
for the break of 1690 to add short which never came. I must warn that a big
negative divergence is running on chart but it is too far from break point. Above
1726, S&P will hit 1740-1745 too. It is now almost 100 points from 30th
August 2013 low’s of 1627. Too big and too rapid.
Break point
for intraday will be either at 1726 or at 1710. As long as it is above 1710,
there may not be scope for bears.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
