You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 03
December 2013: -
On 02
December 2013, FII Bought INR 790.97 crs and DII Sold INR 618.20 crs
First of
all, I like to draw your attention towards VIX. VIX is a fear gauge of market.
If should go down with rising in index. In past two days it has moved from
20.25 to 23.36. Even yesterday it was up by more than 9%. This does not make
sense. It is giving a hint that rise is not going to sustain.
I have
demanded many times and demanding now also that exchange should allow us to
trade on VIX. Based on VIX, I have avoided long trades.
I have
quoted about resistance of 6213 but that has surpassed. Now, 6242-6250 will act
as tougher resistance. Once it breaks below 6140-6130, bears will take charge
again. Note that we need two closed above 6213 to conclude a breakout. I still
say, unless we go above time high we cannot be very sure for rise. Do not look
at FII data. They used to buy heavily near every top.
US market
has probably entered in a phase of short covering at year end trades. Indian market
may be nervous before election result of five states.
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty December future – NIFTY future will open
down by nearly 40 points. After a gap down we may see more weakness. Logically,
if Nifty futures sustain below 6230 then we can expect levels of 6190-6180
also. I suggest selling on every rise. Global market trend will dictate in
second half of trades. Technical resistance will be at 6280 only.
S&P
500
(USA) – It almost hinting that US
market is on the verge of some remarkable profit taking. After hitting my dot
target at 1813, it came at 1800 now. Now the likely target is 1790. We will get
some more confirmation once it breaks below 1790. We must note that we saw many
big negative divergences on some crucial momentum indicators. It is also noticeable
that US market has seen an 11 months of rally. I have already warned too many times
to avoid long at higher levels. This is final call. No long in dip.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
