You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 17 August 2016: -
On 16 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 684.73 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 108.98 Crs
This is definitely an odd pattern to trade where index used to get
support at lower levels and equally facing resistance at higher levels. Well,
this is part of trading life. Technical charts are still suggesting that we
will live in same range. I am still optimistic for attempt for some more rises.
My conviction may be less this time. Wave pattern is still giving some hint for
rise and hence I have traded long in the last trading session.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on negative
note as suggested by SGX Nifty. Suppose market stay range bound near lower
levels then I will not participate index trading for today. We have already
traded long in the last trading session. My view is that we can expect support
in the range of 8590-8550 levels. Market may use to see frequent pull back.
After looking to this structure and then way market has refused to
break below 8000 even in panic we can say that market is preparing something
big. This big think can be as big as 9000-9100 levels of Nifty. I see such
great possibility hence bears must be cautious.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low
at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty August
future – I still use the word of optimism. Technical charts are advocating
for some more bullish attempts. I bought Nifty future @ 8620 yesterday and
booked my profit at 8665. It may be small 45 points but good enough for the
day. Take a note that we will again get support at 8610 and the next support may
be at 8580. Will I buy again?
BANK NIFTY – I still
repeat, unless it go above 19200 I prefer to avoid. My study remains same. It
is saving support at 18400 by long way although recovery form bottom was not as
good as nifty. Still, support is working so far. Technical charts are saying
that if t saving 18400 then do not short. On higher side 18700 is a decisive
level for bulls. If it breaks the resistance on higher side then we can expect
another bullish attempt but that also may not be impressive. In all, this index
is still not my favourite for trading. I focused on Nifty only.
