You must read previous articles and
watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
I have already said that this is ‘Paralysis
of Analysis’. Look at what has happened yesterday. After a strong rebound on Tuesday,
it just turns choppy when expectation was very high. It is giving all signs of
tiredness but still not turning weak. Any indices or stocks cannot be termed as
weak as long as those kept on standing near high.
I have experienced this in past also
that longer choppy movement can cause some change in technical indicator’s
behaviour. MACD has given sell few days back and not it is immediately trying
to be on positive side. Over all things are like we are still standing near
short term resistance. I am feeling that things will change a lot if we stand
above 5967 levels, which I have already discussed in recent past. I still
believe that I cannot ignore the development of possibility of negative
divergence on MACD.
We need to note that we have not
corrected by more than 33% in the rally which has length from 5548 to 5965. There
is an interesting fact that Nifty is respecting a lot to 20 days exponential
moving average. If Nifty breaks 5900 then we can hope for correction.
Intraday dull trading is something
which can be tougher to deal. Get ready to see the impact of Gujrat poll
result. Some indication – BJP will win this election by getting only 100-110
seats. It is suggested by some sources. Any shock above 120 will give some good
time. Personally I believe that BJP should get 125+. Congress is keeping eye on
HP results. Stock Market will take it positive if BJP get stronger.
Conclusion Nifty: I strongly believe that we may see
this market loosing patience. Technical resistance will be at 5950 to 5967
levels. Technical support will be at 5900 marks. I can be concerned for fall
only if breaks 5900. Nifty December future can be weak only below 5924 levels.
Will it break?
S&P 500 – I have already discussed above
1445 few days back also. It has failed to close above those levels for second
session in a row. I believe that we can think about Santa Rally only if it
managed to close above 1445. Now we may see S&P 500 correcting towards 1415
in coming 2-3 trading session. They are still failing to solve fiscal cliff. These
policy makers’s are testing the patience of market.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
