You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 29
April 2013: -
On 26 April
2013, FII bought INR 224.75 crs and DII sold INR 377.78 crs.
I was not
able to present my studies for 26th April due to some personal
reasons. So, I am adding development starting from post expiry day. Perhaps it
was wildest derivative expiry for recent multiple months. Nifty took a fast
upwards swing due to short covering in last 30 minutes. It was big and huge.
I can
conclude that expiry day top was a ‘pop up’ top. We should focus on some
interesting “May month” consequences. We have seen May month dip in the year 2010,
2011 and 2012. The way this top is finishing in the April is itself an
indication for no-better May month.
US market
had formed a Doji pattern and we got a small dip on Friday’s trading. It is
completely true that US market has no bad news as bad news. Something should
come any time to stop that kind of gains or stability.
Technical
charts are suggesting that a new down trend is about to start now. I believe
that expiry day top 5924.60 will remains a crucial resistance and it may remain
untested for recent days at least. I have already quoted earlier also for 5969
as crucial levels. Once it starts trading below 5869-5860 levels we will
immediately see levels of 5829 to 5800. Sooner or later it has to start. I feel
that even if market consolidates then also it will be fall. I do not think that Nifty can try to cross
5910 even on higher side.
Strategy
for Nifty May future – A pausing day was
expected and it came on Friday with soft close. It should come to the technical
levels of 5860 for today’s session. A further move below 5860 will confirm the
reversal of trend. Nifty May future should see selling pressure for almost all
trading session of this week. Crucial resistances will be at 5910 and at 5930.
It is better to note that Bank Nifty may give a larger impact on trading movement.
A clear trend will emerge after today’s trading sessions if it manage to close
below 5860 levels.
S&P
500
– I have written about May month sequences above. It is equally true for
S&P 500 also, As long as S&P 500 is staying below 1598, it should just
go down. It may take time as bulls are strongest in USA. For this week, S&P
has support at 1540. If it breaks 1540 then we can expect a gradual down trend
towards 1500. My studies all most remain same but it is just buying too much
time before acting. It is still ‘a bulls favour a lot’ market but this can
change with May month.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
