You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully
to understand this article completely.
For 18 September 2014: -
On 17 September 2014, FII Bought INR 136.08 crs and DII Sold
INR 161.19 crs
Fed meeting outcome – So, what Yellen did? QE, i.e. “Quantitative
Easing” will finally end next month with end of Bond purchase program but
interest rate will near low for indefinite time even if we will see a very soft
rise in interest rate by the end of year 2015. Fantastic – this is called QE 4.
Welcome to new era of Jenet Yellen - A perfect Ben Barbanke follower.
It is of no use to debate whether it’s good or bad. So leave
that topic. I personally never believe QE concept although I have to accept
that stock prices are higher backed by those money. I do not know about real
revival of economy. Except stock price nothing has improved so far. Fine, we
are dealing only with stock price here.
Let us take a reaction – S&P hit a high just on dot at
2011 and slipped. So it has failed so far at 2011. I have already given 2013 as
fresh bull’s breakout. Asian markets are higher at this point of time. US
market didn’t react much as things were almost known to every trader. From past
experience, we know that market used to get a shock with end of QE. Currency shock
used to come. This is just too bad for emerging economies. At least emerging
economies has bad experience with currency shocks. Let us see how they will
react. Mr. Prime Minister – Be ready!!!
For today’s trading session, opening may come flat. Technical
set up may not change much even after that. Based on chart, if Nifty does not
stand tall above 8000 quickly then a fresh dip is very likely. Take a note that
20 DMA which is now at 8017 will act as stiff resistance. Even to bet for 20
DMA, we need to first see Nifty standing above 7990. Do not be long unless it
stands above 7990 for 15 minutes. Do you know 50 DMA is at 7820.
Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor –
Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear
on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for
emerging market.
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Strategy for Nifty September
future – Nifty September
future should open in the range of 7975 as coming from SGX Nifty. I have quoted
a resistance of 8010 yesterday and we saw a dot high at 8010. For today also,
8010 to 8020 will act as stiff resistance. I may opt to add short on rise again
if it fails at 8010. Below 7950____ a quicker dip will come.
S&P 500 (USA) – As I explained above, 2011 has
tested on S&P and then a drop. Impulsive reaction after Jenet Yellen speech
has failed to give me a break out above 2013. I repeat, as long as it is above
2000 we are likely to see a break out. I will not add any positive on S&P.
Will ‘POST QE” shock come this time too? So far, I believe that it can come but
we need to see that coming on chart. Pure, charting is suggesting me that if it
breaks 1970 in September month then expect a horrible OCTOBER 2014. So far,
1970 is too far.
