You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 29
April 2014: -
On 28
April 2014, FII Bought INR 77.02 crs and DII Sold INR 370.53 crs
Nifty has
not done much yesterday but it is still coming very near to 20 DMA support
slowly. As of now 20 DMA comes at 6740 levels and Nifty closed at 6760. So, it
is just 20 odd points. How important is this? Just take a note that Nifty has
never traded below 20 DMA since 18th February 2014. I never say buy
or sell based on moving average crossover. It just indicates indecision. This is
important. Market behavior changes from a
clear uptrend to indecision.
Question is
what makes me clearer. If you look at momentum technical indicators then you
can see a conclusion about losing momentum. Money flow is also confirming such behavior.
I will focus on follow up trades and 20 DMA right now.
I am still
repeating that ‘optimism’ will come to buy some levels. I suggest splitting
this 14 days period in to two equal half. We may see correction or
consolidation or silence in first 7 trading days to throw weak bulls. After
that, bulls will take positions based on their ‘Optimism’ which will be bullish
and may be sharply bullish. So start the count from 28 May 2014 but do not be
in hurry to conclude for top and do not even try to buy bottom sooner. Buy low
only next week.
For
today’s trading, 6740-6730 will offer good trading support. If it starts
trading below 6740 with conviction then we can expect test of 6700 to 6650 by
this week itself. On higher side bulls will impress only if it can stay above
6780-6790.
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Strategy
for Nifty May future – It has two
important supports, one is at 6790 and another at 6765. Low volume in choppy
market offer some blow up in trades which we saw yesterday with sudden rise and
fall. Right now, I suggest shorting it if it starts trading below 6790. Expect
target near 6765 levels. It will have stiff resistance at 6850 levels.
S&P
500
(USA) – S&P hit a low at 1851
yesterday but closed at 1869 with last hour run. It has 50 DMA at 1858 which
was broken once with conviction but later on won by bulls. So, is it a bullish
reversal? Yes, we cannot deny the possibility. Yesterday’s trading range was
nearly 27 points so it may be a hint that we may see levels near 1900 again.
Still, it is a possibility not a trade so far. Right now, charts are respecting
previous supports more than moving average. I will not short this market any
more right now unless it either come near 1900 or go below 1850. I am not
saying that fall will not come. I am saying that bulls have bought time before
fall now. Well, they can save for 2-3 trading sessions more.
