You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 21
February 2014: -
On 20
February 2014, FII Bought INR 206.46 crs and DII Sold INR 600.71 crs
It was
choppy session throughout the day except last hour crack. Note that now a day
most of the time market got sold in last hour. This is itself showing a bad market
mid set for bulls. Yesterday’s low was near 20 DMA support. I can say that
bounce in global market is saving Indian market so far. Magnitude of bounce
should be better than what it actually came.
S&P
500 came at 1847 which is near to all time high after hitting 1737. On other
hand Nifty bounced only near 6156 which is 4-5% away from its life time high. This
might not look the fair comparison but true in broader sense.
What I mean
to say is that imagine the day when US market will actually go under correction
which is due from longer than expected time. Now, we have a possibility of that
coming sooner. I still believe that a hard correction will come in US market
anytime now. It does not matter if it come from 1850 or from 1888 but it will
come.
For today’s
trading, we will see some higher opening due to strong rebound in US market
last night. Impact will be lesser than what it looks. Nifty will find 6130 as
tougher resistance to cross. If it opens near 6130 then immediate resistance
will be at 6160. I will surprise to see another day where market close near day’s
low. Use this level to exit your all long.
After a
very long time, I am saying to exit from your entire delivery holding. Above comment
does not have much sense if market already starts slipping? Remember, we are
going for derivative expiry sooner now.
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Strategy
for Nifty February future – We will get two
stiff resistances to deal, one is at 6140 and next is at 6167. Even 1% relative
rebound for US market has failed to impress SGX Nifty which is just 20 points
higher. I still say that Nifty may be very close for wash out now. Technical
support is on dot at 6100. If it breaks then we can expect more and more panic.
Even global support may not help at this point. Let us see. My above comments
are applicable for all emerging market.
S&P
500
(USA) – It has bounced again from
lower levels and from key support of 1824. I should not wonder as US has
strongest bulls and they cannot give up so easily. I still believe for the
possibility of hard sell off coming as long as it is below 1850-1854 levels. Perhaps
after more than a year bulls looks tired and their efforts may got sold near
1850. Let us see where we will get the weekly closing now. I still say, press
stop loss at 1854 and go short.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
