You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 04 October 2016: -
On 03 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 34.22 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 198.02 Crs
This was expected rise and it goes in a good way. Technical set up was
firm and able to neglect any bad news. Today we have RBI’s monetary policy
review. I am not expecting much from this policy. Chances of rate cut may be
low. Market will respond only on positive wording towards rate cut. If things
go the way I am expecting then market may prefer to hit 8800 levels.
I must say that Elliott wave sell signal is yet to come. This signal
may come with lesser warning hence I suggest that trading should be done with
extreme cation now. My anticipated level for the possible sell signal is at
8800-8840. I like to see development before converting this in to trade.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat
note. My expectation is that market will prefer to be in rally mode in the
wording to RBI policy. Hence, I am expecting 8800 on higher side today. New
governor Mr. Urjit Patel has to say positive and it need to be positive. I am
sure that he will try to fulfil for the purpose of his handling the tougher
post. Technical support will be at 8700-8680.
One more thing, nothing is going to happen at Indo-Pak boarder in the
year 2016. Do not expect anything happening sooner so this was last news and
come back to work.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty October
future – Nifty future is likely to open around 8780 levels. Let us see if
this can cross above 8820 levels. If I am right the Nifty October future may
get a rise towards or above 8850 levels. I have already added long yesterday.
Down side support stands at 8750. I may not be very active in second half on
long side.
BANK NIFTY – This is
fantastic run on bank nifty. It has closed above 19500 and it may possible to
hit the levels of 19800 to 19900. Well, anything above 20000 may not be easy to
cross. Technical charts will give better signal from higher levels for sell
signal. I am not very keen to trade on short side immediately but I am sure
that sell will come lesser warning.
