You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 05
April 2013: -
On 04 April
2013, FII Sold INR 326.21 crs and DII bought INR 64.73 crs.
It turned
out to be third day in a row where FII has sold in cash market. This is definitely
not a good sign. It seems that now FIIs are thinking about their position in
India. As Indian market is under performing the global market so this phase was
very obvious. I was feeling this phase to come lot earlier.
Nifty has
broken 5600 support and closed on decisive lower levels. It may turn out to be turmoil
now. One should note that now trading support will be at 5548 and if it breaks
further then it will stop only at 5500. These are very rapid fall that we are experiencing.
Yesterday’s fall was very important as those were coming with all stable and
rising global market.
Looking on
Nifty daily as well as hourly charts, I can say that it is showing signs of
some recovery for intraday. Will it come? Well, it seems that market mood has
totally changed. Selling was coming at critical points and hence it denied the
deserved recovery.
RSI and
MACD are giving small degree of positive divergence but confirmation has yet to
come for those to act. I may be in better position to comment after opening.
There is
some good news coming from policy making front. Finally, market got news that
sugar decontrol is a reality now. Japanese market is running higher with 450+
points of gain. In terms of bad news, Korea giving jerks to some other Asian
indices. There is nothing much to say. Keep your eye on 5548 and then at 5500
as support. Try to find out for the sign of recovery but those are very rare
now a day.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – I was not
expecting the break of 5610 so easily but it did. You can say that these are
the phases where all supports are failing and all resistances are working. The last hope and the final hope have also
died. So now, it is looking to move at 5562 and then 5536 (>5472) as
support. These are painfully true. On higher side, nothing can be safe. It will
face stiff resistance at 5624 levels. There is a positive divergence but no indication
that it will play its role. Let us see.
S&P
500
– It has some recovery in the last trading session and hence ‘follow up’ of
selling was missing. Is it totally missing? No. Look at US Small cap 2000; it
has lost 0.33% more. It is showing that profit taking has already started in US
market. It is the matter of time when will it hit the blue chip Index stocks. I
am raising the critical point as break down. Now it is at 1550-1548. (Previously,
I was mentioning at 1545-1540 which has worked well as support). Something big
can come anytime now.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
