You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 25
June 2013: -
On 24 June
2013, FII sold INR 1552.98 crs and DII bought INR 931.11 crs.
Day after
day FIIs are selling huge. So far, in terms of money flow, this is worse month
since September 2011. They sold INR 9073 crs so far. Suddenly world is bleeding
from past just three days. Nifty lost more than 200 points in past two days.
Market is
absorbing too many shocks. Firstly, it was rupee weakness then it got fed
shocker and now it is digesting China fear. Almost every single global index is
heavily oversold in short term. A bounce or recovery deserves but before that
we need silence in news flow. Some sort of bottom buying has happened in US
market last night as it was well off the lows and futures are also little
higher.
Technical charts
are giving support but every single support has broken in past 3 – 4 days. I was
expecting it to save 5600 but that has also broken and now hopes for support at
5545. I must say that it should not come close to 5545. Small positive
divergence is emerging on daily chart and based on which I am betting on
recovery.
Note some threshold point. If Nifty manages to stand tall above 5640 on 5
minutes chart then only expect some sustainable recovery. Is it going to
happen? Let us see. Note that INDIAVIX is now well above 21, even yesterday it shoots
up to 10%.
Strategy
for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is
giving signals for a flat start which is itself a big thing. It may improve
more before our market open. We got 45 points of intraday recovery yesterday
from low. It is giving a sense that 5556 should for some time. Crossover of
5630 will generate for the test of 5683. A point of 5683 will be litmus test
for recovery.
S&P
500
– I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that
S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.
US market
is at the lowest point of past two months of trade. Now it hit a low at 1560
with good cool off in VIX. It is still concerning that it has closed below 100
DMA. I am expecting 1560 to hold as panic low. We can expect recovery towards
1600 now. Remember, Tuesday has a good history for bulls. Will it be another
rising Tuesday?
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
