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read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 26
February 2014: -
On 25
February 2014, FII Bought INR 423.41 crs and DII Sold INR 289.12 crs
Nifty has
closed at 6200. It is not a bad close but it is surely a close which demands
higher degree of caution. A small negative divergence has emerged on MACD
hourly chart. We have derivative expiry of February month series today. I was
expecting a global sell off to come but it is not happening yet. Many major
global indices have a chart set up which is suggesting that whenever next wave
of correction will come it will come with massive intensity.
Well, so
far every index is either on life time high or at 52 week high except Indian
market. 50 DMA for NIFTY is at 6180 now and this will act as strong trading
support. If it breaks and stay below 6180 then we can think for the next
support at 6150. Derivative expiry can makes the thing more complicated.
On higher
side 6242 to 6262 is still valid resistance. As long as Nifty is staying above
6195 it has a possibility of higher test before next sell off.
It does
not matter what short term charts are telling us. Long term charts are issuing
the signs of warning for a brutal sell off of wave “C”. This can come any day
and anytime. Hence, keep your eye on global market too. Reason can be anything
for sell off and this kind of signal cannot be ignored because is raising form
little longer and already entered in over bought zone.
Nifty
charts are suggesting that as long as it is above 6150 there cannot be anything
to be worry for bulls so far. Let us see what is coming. I find options as
safer way to play contra shorts as technical signals are still for buy-and-hold
mode. We have derivative expiry today.
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Strategy
for Nifty March future – Crossover of 6205
has a hint for 6240 but that came as a gap. It will take a dull opening but
rest part of the day is going to be wild due to derivative expiry. I can find
decisive trading support at 6105. Resistance will emerge at 6260-6270 levels. Nothing
can be sure for expiry day.
S&P
500
(USA) – It almost remains unchanged
but closed below 1850. I will keep my study same as of yesterday. It is looking
like a short term top or very close to short term top. I have noticed an
interesting pattern. This is only the first time that S&P gave intraday
breakout but not closing near day’s high. I am still shy for long deals. It is
better to wait for the beginning of storm does not matter which side it comes. High
possibility is that it will go lower only but so far we have good signal to
short either.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
