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For 28
April 2014: -
On 25
April 2014, FII Bought INR 295.01 crs and DII Sold INR 417.30 crs
Nifty
opened with a high point on May series with new all-time high on Friday which
came as 6869.85 but failed to give any impressive close. It has closed below
6800 to make chart weaker. I can apply ‘Sell in May and go home’ for rest other
market but can I say same for Indian market? This month series has crucial date
as 16th May. Market participants will take positions based on their
expectations on the outcome of general election.
Most general
pattern suggests that pre-election rally used to continue in post-election
weeks too. It is true for 4 out of last five elections. In this way, I strongly
suggest that we can expect market following this behavior this time too. It gives
me a sense that market can come to 20 DMA at 6732-6722 as maximum possible
downside levels. Any break below 6722 will give us another levels near 6660
levels.
‘Optimism’
will definitely buy the low of this market. So, do not conclude for reversal in
trend till 16th May. I can sense for weakness in trend for this week
but this may not continue for long. Including today we have 14 trading session
till 16th May. I suggest splitting this 14 days period in to two
equal half. We may see correction or consolidation or silence in first 7
trading days to throw weak bulls. After that, bulls will take positions based
on their ‘Optimism’ which will be bullish and may be sharply bullish. So start
the count from today but do not be in hurry to conclude for top and do not even
try to buy bottom sooner. Buy low only next week.
For
today’s trading, 6722 will offer good trading support. It is odd 60 points
away. So, we still have scope to see dip. Remember, this dip is coming for just
one purpose. The purpose is to throw weak bulls. I have already suggested shorting
this market at higher levels with a possible trading top at 6878. It was
explain on Friday how it comes.
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Strategy
for Nifty May future – We may see a soft
opening for today’s session. Crucial support will be at 6780 and 6765 levels. I
feel that these levels may be tested sooner now. Take a note that we will see
some wild fluctuation in premium value of Nifty May month future for this week.
Target and stop loss will be adjusted based on spot value. I like to see if
Nifty spot breaks 6722 on lower side or will it recover before that.
S&P
500
(USA) – I talked about two figures
on Friday. First was 1885 and another was 1872. Market saved my stop loss point
of 1885 and given me desired break down below my threshold point of 1872.
Charts are suggesting for next logical target at 1850. I believe for the break
below 1850 too and we will see it moving towards 1800 sooner. I can see warning
sign in NASDAQ composite too. It is suggesting me to prepare for tech melt down
after earning season. Currently, it is at 4070. I see a high possibility for
crash target as 3700 to 3600. Stay short and enjoy the week. Market is close to
confirm for ‘Sell in May and go home’. Take a note that crucial 50 DMA is now
at 1858.
