You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 27 September 2016: -
On 26 September 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 206.40 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 113.35 Crs
Yesterday’s low turned to be 8715 and this turns out to be very close
to the decisive support of 8680. Will it hit or miss before expiry? I usually do
not prefer to trade expiry days or nearby and hence I may opt to stay away from
trading. I can participate only if I can get concrete signal. Well, this is my
comfort zone to pick a trade.
For today’s trading session I do not have great clue where will this
market open. I have few short positions which I will prefer to unwind. Technical
support may emerge at 8680 levels and this may turn to be decisive. A recovery
may hit if this support works. Traders must go on caution due to derivative
expiry. Near to the support of 8680 and derivative expiry, I do not suggest
much to trade.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – SGX Nifty is giving a hint for flat start. I am short from yesterday
and I will close my short now. I prefer to make a switch to October month trade
but I will prefer to go on wait and watch mode for some time. One should check my twitter handler to see intraday
updates. Revised levels will be updated.
BANK NIFTY – I am already
off to my trade of short on this index as expiry is very close. I am just
making my position lighter. We may expect BANK NIFTY to crash near to
19500 but this is largely an expectation. It may take some more time to come. One
must avoid shorting from lower levels. If one has not shorted on rise then
there is no point to short at 19700 for just 150-200 points. Risk – reward ratio
may not be favourable.
