You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
09 December 2016: -
On 08 December 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 698.86 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 64.32 Crs
Market is not disappointed after ECB meeting. Well, I can say that
global sentiment is firm so far. Global sentiment is firm and one can say that
it is saving the possible fall in Indian market. So it is just saving the fall.
Based on Elliott wave count I can say that it is going to make a top here and
there sooner. It may be the last day of rise which can come today. I strongly
believe that a down move will start sooner in second half of the month.
For today’s trading I am expecting this up move to continue if this
can sustain above 8250 levels. What can be the possible top point? My
anticipation is that top can be near to 8300. I am keeping a room of 20 points
as margin of error from 8300 levels. Technical support is at 8200 levels. As
long as it is above 8200 we cannot get any firm sell signal but sell signal can
emerge from higher levels.
It is strongly advisable that market may give a top sooner so do not
take many long at these levels. December is not going to be comfortable month
for trading.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty December
future – SGX Nifty is now trading above 8280 and we will see opening around
those levels. Nifty Future can come around 8300 but much extension may not be
possible. Technical support is at 8230 and then at 8200 levels. I have a soft
forwarded long which I will give up at higher levels. We have yet to decide if
we can think of shorting at higher levels.
BANK NIFTY – I need to
repeat that above 18300 it can chance of hitting 18700. Below 18300 it can open
room for 18000 levels. If a firm move has to come then it should settle above
18700 levels. Can we expect this kind of strength sooner? I do not think so. This
can be a better instrument for fall rather than betting for a rise.
