You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 25
April 2013: -
On 23 April
2013, FII bought INR 226.21 crs and DII sold INR 529.29 crs.
Looking on
FII money flow it is looking like market men are also confused. We can conclude
that those are also not very confident money. We are now on derivative expiry
day after a holiday. We are on 10th day of recovery. Practically,
market might not have big short to cover but volatility is always expected on
derivative expiry day.
Till now,
Nifty has broken each resistance and respected each support too. We are going
to see higher opening but it may be treated as a ‘pop – up’ opening. Nifty
still has resistance in the zone of 5870 to 5900 levels. It will open in the
given zone and then we will see a decline. It is sharpest and biggest 10 days
movement of the recent time. Charts are suggesting that we are near to ‘the
short term top’ again. Sharper rally may result the consolidation first. I still
need to add that minimum condition for price pullback is ‘a negative close’. We
still have not got that weak negative close. We must be very close to get that pausing
to weak signal.
Even US
market has given a Doji pattern after one day of massive recovery. It is not
easy to beat the most power bulls of the world that are at USA. This remains a
single biggest boosting factor for the rest of the global market. Odd money may
try to keep technical on back foot. It means that market may not respect the
technical signal in a good way. It needs to give some divergence before
falling. Derivative expiry day is most suitable to give such signals.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – I have already
concluded earlier that as long as it is saving 5790 it will save the fall. Well,
I was expecting resistance at 5830 levels which was respected whole day before
breaking on higher side in last few minutes of trades. It is expected to take
strong gap up in the morning minutes but it will open on resistance at 5910
levels. It will not be easy day to trade. We can expect weakness after higher
opening. Rest will depend on expiry volatility. I still feel that we will see
closing well away from day’s high.
S&P
500
– I was expecting a soft bounce. It hit a high at 1583 and that is surprising
for me. I was expecting top in the range of 1570 to 1575 levels. Still,
charting pattern suggest that it came to make double top with second top lower
than the previous one. Broader chart suggests that now it will again open a
move towards 1543 levels. This selling should start from today onwards. I strongly
believe that one close below 50 DMA will push S&P 500 towards 1500 levels.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
