You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 22 May
2013: -
On 21 May
2013, FII bought INR 679.44 crs and DII sold INR 866.70 crs.
Closing basis,
market has closed negative and closed near to the day’s low. It has just saved
critical 6100 levels. This is not sufficient to define market movement as we
have seen a rebound of 60 points in the period between 1:40 pm to 1:50 pm. It was
bull’s attempt which has failed miserably in last one hour of trades. It put a
big dent on hourly chart. 101%, this kind of bounce cannot be predicted. This is
making trading troubling.
We got a dip when global markets were stable to silent. It is noticeable that
Indian market is again under performing the global markets. One must note that
India rupee got another sharp depreciation against USD. It is now at 55.30
levels which is lowest of last six months. It is again giving fresh threat of
broadening trade deficit.
Technical charts
are suggesting that break below 6100 will push Nifty lower towards 6050 and
further break will cause a test towards 6000 marks. So far, nifty is 2% down
from its recent high. RSI has already given negative divergence and a sell on
daily chart. Now, one more negative close may create sell on MACD as shown in
the chart.
SGX Nifty
is right now at 6140. I am expecting another dull first half after 15-20 points
higher opening and then second half will again give wild moves. Preferable hours
of trade will come after 2 pm. Note that from past three days, post 2 pm trade
direction remains unidirectional.
Strategy
for Nifty May future – An intraday
pullback from 6125 to 6190 has failed. Close below 6125 has generated sell
again. Now, suppose, if it breaks 6105 for today’s trading with volume and time
then we can expect further 55 points of slide. It will give us target near 6050
levels. Any higher opening will get sold at higher levels.
S&P
500
– It hit another high at 1675.20. It seems that nothing can stop US market. All
technical indicators are dead right now. Ben Barnanke will release his view on
QE which is expected to be dovish. Will that able to bring correction or will
that give another leg of rise? Let us see.
One must note
that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up
from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and
its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1478
and S&P @ 1667. I say, correction is a natural law and it must come but I
have no idea when will it come.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
