You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 20
February 2014: -
On 19
February 2014, FII Bought INR 468.47 crs and DII Sold INR 338.74 crs
It has
finally crosses 6145 in final minutes of trades yesterday. You can refer to the
chart, volume has dropped. We got four days of rise and today is fifth day. We
may get a possible reversal now. I have already advised caution as S&P 500
was coming near 1850. US market fears that perhaps we may see the end of
low-bank rate era. Now market will try to imagine life without stimulus and
without low bank rate. We saw sell off in US market last night. I am expecting
lots of readjustment in many emerging market currencies now.
Above news
is surely bad news for emerging market like India although it may not have too
bad meaning for USA itself. I have already named yesterday’s rise above 6145 as
misguiding top. I have suspected for a bear down for today. Suddenly market got
reasons too. It is looking like 6160 is going to be top for some time.
For today’s
trade, one can use intraday pullback to short this market. Remember, firstly
tapering and then fear of rate hike in US will hurt banking stocks most. There is
no point to guess when US will hike bank rates. It is just enough that they
will hike at some point sooner than what market was anticipating. It is not
panic kind environment but surely a setback.
Let us see
how market will react today. The future course of action will depend on today’s
closing levels.
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Strategy
for Nifty February future – I believe that yesterday’s
last minutes buying came as misguidance. Such blow up top used to come in past
also. We are on resistance of 6160. It is looking like market has thrown weaker
bears yesterday. It is looking like market will open below yesterday’s low of
6129. If it sustain below 6129 then we can expect 6100 to 6080 levels too. Yesterday’s
high of 6168 will be key resistance. Do not opt fresh short if it able to save
6129 by any chance.
S&P
500
(USA) – So, how was that? We got a
high at 1847+ yesterday and then a wash out fall to close at 1829.
Congratulation to those who went short on S&P. Market fears that perhaps we
may see the end of low-bank rate era. Now market will try to imagine life
without stimulus and without low bank rate. Charts are suggesting that wave “C”
has started now. If I am right then this wave will give bigger pain to bulls
because it can drag market for 100 points fall. Keep stop loss at 1854 and hold
all shorts.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
