31 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: My word of caution is extreme for today, just a day away from budget.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

31 January 2017: -

On 30 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 607.36 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 40.04 Crs

What to observe from upcoming union budget? Normally, budget has no greater impact for more than one two days. Well, I have something which market will definitely look for. This is Long term capital gain tax and the definition of long term capital gain.

The second important point is service tax structure. We almost know that there is a possibility of big hike in service tax. Both may have adverse impact on market. If finance minister surprise market positively then only market can head higher. If it head higher then we need to talk about 9000. Charts are not supportive for 9000 so sooner. In adverse impact we can easily see a wash out of 300 points of Nifty.

For today’s trading also I am expecting market to open in line with SGX Nifty and immediate support should be at 8600 levels. It is looking like another gap down but it will not get any great follow up. Market will be either nervous or it may see dull trade in waiting mode. I see a higher chance of waiting mode.

Event is big and event is going to historical. What am I expecting from budget? Truly, I am expecting nothing. Budget is just a sentimental factor. It has nothing to do with dynamics.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I have nothing great to change from my previous analysis. It can take support at 8600 kind of levels but I am not sure if it can be good to enter in to trade now. It has higher chance of turning choppy in 30-40 points of zone. Just stay away of big move does not start on down side.   

BANK NIFTY February future – I am keeping my study unchanged for Bank Nifty. Is 20000 still reachable. Yes it can but it may have a possibility of missing. Today is decisive day if bulls like to buy the dip. If it fails then 20000 may not come sooner. Immediate technical support is at 18600-18500 kind of levels which is too far. How far this is, we will see this today. One thing- do not prefer to trade long.