You must read previous articles and watch the
given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
For 16 April 2014: -
On 15 April 2014, FII Sold INR 21.63 crs and
DII Sold INR 278.27 crs
Last night Wall Street rebounded strongly
from lower levels. On other hand Indian market looks tired now. FIIs have sold
for second day in a row. I do not give much value to those but it is still in
consideration. My point is that Indian market has decoupled itself from global
movement. So, we may not have any good impact of US rebound. Indian market will
react with its own data, earning and political development.
India VIX hit 32.62 as high yesterday.
Technical charts are suggesting that as long as NIFTY is below 6775 we have a
chance of heading towards 6700 levels. Short term and meaningful support will
be only at 6640 which were almost on test on 7th April 2014. This uptrend
will intact as long as it is above 6640. This does not mean that one can buy
here. Note that after a long time we saw under performance in mid cap and small
cap indices. Even Bank Nifty has added weakness which was strong point of
recent rally.
Conclusion for the day is that Nifty will
face technical resistance at 6775 and 6800 levels. In the down side, It will
get support at 6700. Break of 6700 will invite move towards 6640. Short on
weakness will be better strategy for trading. Pick the stock which is trading
with weakness. Like, we picked Tata Motors yesterday.
TCS, WIPRO and Reliance will deliver their quarterly
numbers this week. After Infosys, I am not expecting any positive surprises
with any of these stocks.
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Strategy for Nifty April future – Trading index was
not my choice from past many trading sessions. Now, it seems that we may have
some better opportunity. It will face trading resistance at 6770-6780. Opening
is likely to be on lower side. If it breaks 6730 then we will see quick move
towards 6710-6700 levels. I like to short the rise. We may have a chance to buy
near 6700 depending on technical indicators for intraday. We will get a
confirmation about tired in Nifty by today itself. If not then prepare for
another round of buying which can hit in few days. I feel that we will get some
sell off before further rise.
S&P 500 (USA)
– I
was expecting a bounce coming near to 1840. What has surprised me is that it
took swing again from support of 1815. This kind of pattern generally creates
momentum for some more bounce. More importantly it has closed above 1842. We
have a chance to say that 1815 is a short term bottom. When I am saying short
term bottom then I mean for 3-4 days of cycle. There is no point to stay short
above 1840 levels of S&P 500. I need to repeat that it is expected bounce
so far. We can count on strength only if it manages to close above 50 DMA and
this level is at 1846.75.
