04 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty closed above 6000 marks. I am repeating that we need a cross above 6020-6024 to bet for further rise. No need to be in hurry to conclude for tiredness of rally.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It was dull and it was giving signs of tiredness in the last trading session. Well, it has happened many times in past that market had given freak sign of tiredness. I can feel that we cannot be in hurry to conclude that it is tiring. One can take it in another way that market is consolidating. I have already said that we need a cross over of 6020 to 6024 marks to bet for further rise. It hit a high at 6017 yesterday and then just trading in a choppy ways.

Rise may be limited from this point but rise may come. We need to note that intraday trading band was very limited from past few trading days. We moved higher but majority of rise was dominated by gap up. Worse is that Nifty future kept on loosing premium?

Technical indicators are still suggesting that some steam might be in the market. I can sense one thing very clearly that does even if correction comes it will not a major one. As of now 5980 will act as good support for intraday trading.

Now market need to focus on the up coming quarterly numbers too which is not considered seriously yet. Another important event is speculation over bank rate cut by RBI. I heard so many things and there are so many such talks. In my view, let RBI decide when they what they want. It does not matter what I think, fact is that banking stocks are still stronger on hopes and traders need to take advantage.

We need to note that momentum indicators like RSI is not yet in over bought zone. Even if correction comes then also it may not break the support of 5940. Can we have a chance to trade short on intraday? This can be possible but Nifty must not cross above 6024 by any chance. This is something we can judge only during trading hours.

Conclusion Nifty: I do not think that we need to make any changes in technical conclusion for the day. Trend is still up with some target near 6020 then 6024 will act as next threshold for move towards 6100 marks. Important trading support will be at 5980 levels while short term (say 2-3 days) support will be at 5940 levels. No technical indicators are concerning either on daily chart or on weekly charts. We can see some intraday development on hourly charts at higher levels. 

S&P 500 – It is above 1460 and it is still bullish to bet for an attempt to break 1470-1475 levels on higher side. I must say that it cannot be easy for S&P to cross 1475 but it has potential to do that (which I am speculating). Cross over of 1475 will give the levels above 1500. Things are looking s easy, isn’t it? Our selected trader took long in dip and booked good profit. Now I want a pullback or time consolidation.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

03 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty hits 6000 marks after 2 years. So far trend is up and now the next thresh hold will be at 6020-6024 levels to take a move towards 6100 too. Support is only at 5980 and 5940.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Nifty hit 6000 marks on very second day of 2013. It has encouraged traders as well as investors. US deal over fiscal cliff has given a global push. We have seen massive gain in European market as well US market. Comparing those Indian markets has not reacted much. This has happened perhaps because we are already trading at 20 month’s high.

Technical indicators are still not concerning. In fact, MACD has given a buy signal yesterday on daily chat. This is always treated as lag indicators but it cannot be ignored. It is important to note that none of important technical indicators is yet in over bought zone. We can expect pause in the worse case at higher levels but there is no indication of price correction.

It is a good idea to add a long at suitable levels and then kept on trail those long. One can get opportunity of adding short or long for intraday but traders should not opt to forward short as long as trend remains up. One should note that this market has potential to move towards 6100 and then even 6186. Next question is about the support.

First immediate support will be at 5980. It is going to act for intraday. Can we say that every problem has solved for the market and we should wait for much higher targets like 10%? It is not like this way. What I like to say is that do not be over optimistic. Even if we talk about 6200 or 6300 whose are just 3-4% rise from this time.

I am equally adding that we may see another newer high today but market can react for profit taking from higher levels. Even if it has to happen then also it can happen only from 6020 t0 6024 or little earlier.

Conclusion Nifty: Trend is still up with some target near 6020 then 6024 will act as next threshold for move towards 6100 marks. Important trading support will be at 5980 levels while short term (say 2-3 days) support will be at 5940 levels. No technical indicators are concerning either on daily chart or on weekly charts. We can see some intraday development on hourly charts at higher levels.  

S&P 500 – I talked about 1470 as target and it came very near to this in just one blow up rise. is this good? I cannot say but this rise is making market more confident. Now my call is that S&P 500 will try to come towards 1475 but fresh long should be taken only above 1475 on sustained basis. One need to remember that we bounced from nearer to 200 DMA. So far so good and nothing concerning yet a reaction against such sharp rise will be good if comes. Those need to use as opportunity to add long.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar