Nifty:Technical views for 30 April - Still choppy days

NIFTY – It’s another phase of choppy days and many traders might not be comfortable. There are two to take this market.

• Case 1 – Ranging market – You can say that Nifty is moving in a range with lower range in the zone of 5170 to 5135 and higher level remains on contraction. Then we are at the bottom of the range and hence we should not short.
• Case 2 – Trending market – Some believe that we are on the verge of breakdown after so many choppy wave formation and triangle breakdown. If one believes so then he would prefer to short.

Here we have problem where one view is saying ‘do not short’ while other is saying ‘short’ and ‘short’.

Well, I can say that with time reference both are right. Please note that you need to mention ‘time reference. These choppy moves will continue. One must wait till we get clear breakdown on the chart which will come. One should wait patiently till those times and ‘do not short’ near to the lower part of the band. Always use pull backs to short this market.

You can say that this pullback might be the opportunity to trade long. Yes, it can be but question is how you can handle so must quicker switches.

In the above chart, I have plotted a resistance line with top important tops at 5379 and 5342. Now the formation of 38% lines is running with downward angle from 5240 levels. This 30% resistance line can be a hint for another troubling choppy session before break.

If I assume 38.20% reactionary wave (of 5342.50 to 5155) then we will have resistance @ 5227. A crossover will give us 5248 and then (not sure) 5270 levels.

For today, I am not short and I am not willing to short at lower levels. Do read the analysis of 26 April 2012 to understand the rebound from 5155; it was little before the support of 5146. Read on this link - http://viecapital.blogspot.in/2012/04/nifty-keep-eye-on-resistance-5230.html

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

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Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889



Weak govt biggest drag on India's growth: Moody's

Moody's Analytic has said owing to a weak government, the Indian economy may expand substantially below its potential of 7.5 per cent in 2012.

It has blamed lack of political will for the slow reform process and said the United Progressive Alliance government didn't have the numbers or the leaders to push through tough-minded reforms needed to drive the next wave of growth.

Manmohan Singh is an ageing technocrat who now appears tired of the rough and tumble of Indian politics. This leaves the national reform process in limbo," said Glenn Levine, senior economist, Moody's Analytics.

Risks were still tilted to the downside because of the dire political situation, though there were some reasons for optimism.

Economic growth is likely to hover at about six per cent through the first half this year and a steady upturn in activity may lift second-half growth to 6.5 per cent, said the analytics arm of the rating agency.

It said in midst of negative news, there were two events that offered hope for the economy, the Reserve Banks of India's decision to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points and prediction of average monsoon rains this year.

The agency said the single biggest factor weighing on the outlook was the Indian government.

The wave of government reforms and opening up sectors through the 1990s lifted gross domestic product growth to more than eight per cent before the global financial crisis.

However, since then, these have stopped.

The Congress-led UPA returned to power in 2009. This meant a strong mandate to accelerate the economic reforms begun in the alliance's first term.

However, weighed down by corruption and funding scandals, it has passed no notable Bills.

Levine said the government had lost all momentum. Progress on existing Bills covering pressing issues like land reform, fuel subsidies and labour rights are unlikely till the national elections in 2014.