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read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 18
March 2014: -
On 14
March 2014, FII Bought INR 982.19 crs and DII Sold INR 866.42 crs
A bounce came
on Friday from 6432 which was still higher than 6420. It has closed above 6500
levels again. So, it was second weekly close above 6500 levels in a row. There is
no great technical threat as long as it stays above 6400-6420 support zones.
Take a note that 50 DMA for NIFTY is running at 6216 levels which is way too
far from here.
We may see
trading near this range but scope of fall will always there to go near to 50
DMA. Nifty and Sensex has history of running near 50 DMA only. I feel that 6265
will offer good resistance on higher side. Above which, it can try to come near
6620-6625 levels but high will not be stable one. Some key momentum indicators
are tiring now.
I say, have
a look at 6480 for the day. If it breaks 6480 then it will invite some
unwinding of longs. On higher side, you can expect intermediate trading
resistance at 6535 and 6565 levels. Banking index will be weaker than Nifty or
may have lesser strength than blue chip index. Stock specific movements are
expected.
NIKKEI is
trading at 14480 right now. I will not surprise if it close in negative. It can
break 14000 levels this week or next week and then we will see a real melt
down. Note that below 14000, NIKKEI will become first index which can signal of
something ‘very bad’. Read S&P 500 (US) analysis too, to conclude, how time
is shaping for global indices.
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Strategy
for Nifty March future – Opening is going
to be stable to positive. It may open even above 6550 but scope for further
trading rise is going to be very limited. Technical charts are suggesting that
above 6262 it can hit levels of 6600 levels or nearer. Expect some weakness if
it can settle below 6520 levels. Picture will be clearer only in second half of
trading. Keep your eye on India VIX too.
S&P
500
(USA) – S&P 500 bounced in its
own fashion from a nearer support of 1828 which was 50 Days moving average. It closed
above 1854 again and that raised a possible new all-time high again. When I am
saying all-time high, have a look on MACD. Will it able to surpass with divergence
again? March is 60th month of this Bull Run which has started from
March 2009. It has happened in 1982 to 1987 also but it ended with brutal sell
off. So, if it is so close to make a history then it is better to wait for 61th
month. I have not said this from past few months as I was also bullish time to
time. I am repeating that ‘mother trend’ has been violated due to fed
interference. So far, daily chart has no threat for long but be cautious.
