Monday, 30 September 2013

30 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Gap down will take out 5800 in opening minute. We may see levels near 5700 also. It may refuse to give easy recovery as it has broken 200 DMA just now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.



For 30 September 2013: -
On 27 September 2013, FII Sold INR 244.95 crs and DII Sold INR 115.27 crs
It does not matter what good reason we pick but if charts are not favouring then it is just difficult to stand with a trend. I give up my entire long on Friday. No harm in accepting that I booked loss in few positions. I was getting a fear that if Nifty breaks 5800 by any chance on Monday morning then we might be under trouble. It was mentioned on my intraday updates too.
Concerns were visible on Daily charts. RSI was giving low to low negative divergence. MACD is just turning to sell side. I must regret why I have not added short. It was not only technical indicators but also charting patterns which gave sell. It is almost an H&S pattern with n- line at 5800 levels. It has given scary targets. US market took a dip on Friday night and right now US futures are on bleeding. I will add more about S&P in mast paragraph.
Technical charts are giving for target near 5700 once it breaks 5800 which is looking very obvious this morning. Recovery may not be easy. It may fill up the gap Up which was formed between 06 September 2013 to 10th September 2013. I will update about those in my intraday updates. Take a note that I have added long on gold for short term which may give me gain.
Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future is likely open down with a gap of 70 points as indicated by SGX NIFTY. It means that it will open somewhere near to 5820-5800 levels. Next important support can be at 5760 only. We may get intermediate support at 5800 also. I always say that it can never be easy to conclude anything if gaps are coming.

S&P 500 – When I was assuming support at 1690, Friday’s trade has shocked me. I booked my long well in advance before it could make any big damage. Damage is about to come now. I cannot say that it can hurt in time parameter as bounce will come sooner. Worry is that it can hurt in price terms. I am expecting S&P 500 to come somewhere near to 1670. I am expecting recovery from low but there is no great visible sign as of now. Let us see today’s trade to conclude.   
Regards,

Praveen Kumar