You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
21 November 2016: -
On 18 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 926.32 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1143.42 Crs
I have a simple comparison to show trouble for Indian market. S&P
USA has all time at 2193 and it is still at 2182 now. We have all time high at
9100+ and we are now near to 8100. Do not think that this under performance is
an opportunity to buy. It is reverse. It may be opportunity to sell. Never think
that all indices in the world will necessarily move parallel to each other.
Let, us focus on Indian indices. Nifty is failing to take support at
8100 with is giving an alarm for the test of 8000 levels. I am still not saying
that bounce will not come. What I am saying is that market is failing to give a
sign of bounce and shorting without bounce is giving a higher stop loss. Hence,
we cannot trade long or short at current levels.
For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening but I am not very
convinced for the bounce yet although I have soft long on index which I may
give up. Let us see if we can get support or Nifty will hit 8000. What market
is needed as booster dose is – Rate cut. If bounce comes from 8000 levels then
also it should give some remarkable recovery based on wave’s formation.
Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty November
future – I have no trade on index right now. I am expecting a recovery
based on Elliott wave levels but we have no concrete sign so far. If slide
continues then it can be bleeding. 101% this may not be time to do many
adventures. I cannot say about exact levels for support. It may be at 8050 or
8000. Depending on outcome I will decide by next course of action.
BANK NIFTY – I have no great
view on Bank nifty. I am not that firm on my view for bounce now. Today is the
last day. If it comes then it is fine else I may look to trade short. This may
not be easy to short without any bounce but traders will not left with many
choice. Below 19000, who knows what kind of levels will start to come.
