23 February 2018: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: PNB - What we know is much less than what we don’t know. Nifty intermediate support = 10300

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Analysis 23 February 2018: -

On 22 February 2018: FII Net Sold – 2335.34 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1059.42 Crs

We got expected dip from 10600 + levels and we saw a pause on 10300 levels. Well, so far it is so well placed. Market may go in consolidation phase as long as it holds 10300 levels. Two more supports deserved to be mentioned. One is around 10100 and next is psychological 10000 marks.

My view is that trading range for short term will go in the zone of 10000 to 10300 before breaking lower further. Right now, trading range is one step higher. Is it fit for investment? No, not at all.

For today’s trading session, market may open on flat note due to improved global cues. I am not expecting much movement at these levels. Market may go in consolidation mode. I am still warning from the latest scam of PNB. What we know is much less than what we don’t know. One can consider that 10300 is a decisive support in current trading range. On higher side, there will not be easy cross of 10450-10500.

Investment point of view, I have already suggested from December onwards to avoid pumping fresh money in the market as this rise cannot extend more. Remember, every rise is not the opportunity to invest or trading. It’s better to be safer sometime.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It is just the global cues which is saving market but how long can it holds. Trading support may be at 10360-10326-10302. On higher side will face resistance from levels above 10450. After shorting at higher end, I am not very keen to trade index unless I get a strong signal to trade which will come at the break of 10300.  

BANK NIFTY February future – I still stick on my point that Bank Nifty will hit levels of 24000 sooner or later. I am expecting a consolidation in this zone of 24800 to 25200. This looks 400 points but it is going to be dicey so prefer to avoid trades. Well, still at a topping pattern sooner it will be the better instrument to trade on short side.  

19 February 2018: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Topping @ 10600 in recovery may be the first sign for a pain towards 10000.

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Analysis 19 February 2018: -

On 16 February 2018: FII Net Sold – 1065.99 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1127.78 Crs

I have already quoted for the intermediate resistance at 10600 and market slipped from the same levels. Well, apart from all that I am feeling that market has not responded yet on PNB scams. This may be a sentiment hurting event sooner or later. Impact has confined to the some selected banking stocks only but impact will be larger and may raise a question mark on corporate governance issue.

For today’s trading session, market may open on flat note but that may be due to improved global cues. Technical resistance is still at 10600 levels. If it starts showing weakness then we can expect levels of 10350-10300 levels by earlier this week.

Investment point of view, I have already suggested from December onwards to avoid pumping fresh money in the market as this rise cannot extend more. Remember, every rise is not the opportunity to invest or trading. It’s better to be safer sometime.

Strategy for Nifty February future – As long as traded sustains below 10500, it cannot show strength. We have no point to be on long side. If it favours then we will go to see a fall towards 10350-10300 levels. I may opt more shorting if rise comes. There is a fair chance of hitting 10000 marks on Nifty in medium term.

BANK NIFTY February future – A bad mood can spoil anything. Banking index has not yet reflecting the PNB crisis to its full extent. In my view, market will respond sooner on this news. This is much more serious than what it looks like. I am seeing a possibility of 24000 in medium term.

12 February 2018: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Time for bounce but bounce may fail at top. Either at 10600 or at 10735.

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Analysis 12 February 2018: -

On 09 February 2018: FII Net Sold – 1351.700 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 588.42 Crs

The bounce which came from 10270 was overdone in very short time frame. Right now it is well placed for the next bounce as closing was around 10470 levels. Fibonacci levels are already suggesting for those bounce. Technical bounce can have life till 10735 levels with intermediate resistance at 10600 levels. I am not very aggressive for long but soft longs may be the deal for the week.

For today’s trading session, market may open on positive note backed by stronger than expected global cues. Technical support will have meaning only at 10270. Other supports may not have great strength. I am still warning from some unprecedented move in the market. Sooner or later, it may try to settle at 10000 levels before next leg of fall.

Investment point of view, I have already suggested from December onwards to avoid pumping fresh money in the market as this rise cannot extend more. Remember, every rise is not the opportunity to invest or trading. It’s better to be safer sometime.

Strategy for Nifty February future – it is likely to open around 10480 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Nifty may have trading support at 10400 levels. Take a note that trading range is still wide so volatility may not rule out. I am hoping for 10600 on higher side after some zigzag moves.

BANK NIFTY February future – This index has some stronger warning side. It does not matter how much it can recover but signs of doubts will always be here. Technical support is at 25000 levels with a hope for 26000+ levels. It is going to be uncertain 1000 points of range. Simply, avoid this index. Avoid long on Banking stocks too.

07 February 2018: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Below 10400, it was overdone and hence a bounce from low. Still, New high may not be challenged sooner.

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Analysis 07 February 2018: -

On 06 February 2018: FII Net Sold – 2326.10 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1699.74 Crs

A low below 10300 was little overdone and this may be the impact of weaker than expected global cues. Technically, a bounce was deserved and it came. Well, I strongly believe that may part of bounce may have done. My wave count based study is suggesting that 10800 may be a strong threshold for bulls now. Do not expect this fall to arrest sooner unless it can stand above 10800 levels.

For today’s trading session, market may open with some optimism although it may not able to extend more gains from here. Medium term and short term resistance will emerge at 10800 levels. In the lower side meaningful support is only at 10400 levels although trading support may emerge at 10500 levels. Trading range is still expected to be broader.

Investment point of view, I have already suggested from December onwards to avoid pumping fresh money in the market as this rise cannot extend more. Remember, every rise is not the opportunity to invest or trading. It’s better to be safer sometime.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It is expected to open around 10600 levels but do not think that it is going to be easily in favour of bulls on the hope of recovery. If recovery comes then also it will sustain at higher levels. Sooner, trading range will settle below yesterday’s low. This is short on rise but exact point cannot be defined.

BANK NIFTY February future – Low was at 25000. Just think how time it took to give up all recent gains. This is what I called is momentum. This is in favour of bears. Technical resistance will emerge at 26500 levels and this may be a difficult level to cross. In the lower side, 25000 will break. Sooner or later it will break at every cost.  

05 February 2018: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Fall after B-day may be first confirmation of Yearly top at February top (Historically).

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Analysis 05 February 2018: -

On 02 February 2018: FII Net Bought – 950.00 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 508.78 Crs

Well, it seems that Union Budget 2018 caused a hit in Indian market and it results a top. I have already quoted for support at 10800 and Nifty has closed below those marks. Technical goes in favour of fall. I am expecting a target around its previous all-time high. In this process it can try to hit the levels of 10450-10400. So, we can still expect fall of 300-400 points. It was strongly advisable from past two months that one should not invest money in market. Here comes pain as Dow Jones has also lost on significant way.

For today’s trading session, one can expect market to open on big gap down mode. This may not allow fresh bears to enter in to the market. Those who added short on last week are going to get lots of joy. In have a view that if bounce comes then one can prefer to add short. Levels cannot be specified.

This is a post budget fall and market was running without correction from past many weeks. This due correction makes market more dangerous and inviting temptation. If election comes earlier than expected then stock market will read it negative.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I have advised short on past week trades from budget day to even on Friday. My first target was 10800 which have broken. My next target is around 10450-10400 levels. Let us see if this can hit those levels. For today prefer to short on intraday rise. Can it able to recover for gap fill? Well, I have doubts.

BANK NIFTY February future – It has exactly slipped over 1000 points in two trading sessions and it is looking weaker on charts. Technical charts may goes brutally in favour of bears with some haunted targets. So far, I am looking on the possibility of 26000 levels. Further break could cause fresh 500-600 points of fall.

01 February 2018: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: B-Day is D-Day for stock market. Will budget go on populist note or reformative note?

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Analysis 01 February 2018: -

On 31 January 2018: FII Net sold – 136.63 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1294.66 Crs

Ruling party is going to present its last union budget today. Market is sitting with a pre-budget rally with all time high at 11171 levels. This is definitely remarkable. I had a view after Assembly poll that if it can sustain above 11600 then it can raise more and it went up when I was on my personal task.

Now, has Indian market over done in rise? Well, this is 101% true and most market used to go ahead of reality before any significant correction. Based on Fibonacci series and support, I am not expecting any great correction as long as it is 10900 levels. We can expect roller coaster ride today.

My expectation with budget is that it is going to be populist budget which market may not have point to react positively. Whatever position has to come, market may have already discounted with pre-budget rally. I am not in no participation mode right now as I came after long vacation.

For today’s trading session, Nifty is likely to open optimistic note with no clear view. Then market will dance on Mr. Finance Minister’s words. This may invite trading range of 300 to 400 points. It can possible be 11200 to 10800 levels. Rise or fall, it is going to be a gamble to participate. I just like to be spectator.

Strategy for Nifty February future – I am back after a long vacation to start in post budget day. Well, I like to watch market outcome first. Based on Elliott wave count, we are on fifth wave extension and it’s historical, something which do not come so frequently. 10900-10800 is going to be decisive support for budget day.

BANK NIFTY February future – 27450, Well, this is the last close and this is definitely backed by the steps taken by government of India. Big question is, “are Banks really that much healthy for investment?” My answer is not affirmative. I will remain sceptical. If any sector has to be watched for Budget day then it must be Banks.