You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
25 November 2016: -
On 24 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 2010.15 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1648.22 Crs
I will say that expiry was rather better than what I was expecting. Low
for Nifty was just at 7953. Well, we have last day of the week and beginning of
new month series. If Indian market is getting support from lower levels then
key reason is global sentiment which is better than expected. US market is
flying at newer high. If correction hits in US market then Indian market may be
in worse shape. DJIA has seen a massive 1200 points rally in past 20 days and
this still continues.
For today’s trading I am expecting a flattish start which may turn on
decisive mode again for bulls and bears. My expectation is that market may not
able to save for longer time. No bounce can sustain at higher levels just like
it has witnessed in past few days. In clear sense it has denied the bounce in
price recovery. This is just a time based consolidation. 8100 is a resistance
and 7900 is a support.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty December
future – There were many attempts for 8100 in past few days but all has
failed at top. Technical support is at 7980 levels. Well, I am not suggesting
one should participate in any kind of rise as those are not convincing yet. Even
if the rise comes then also it will be of very nominal magnitude. If trading
range remains limited then do not participate in trade. There cannot be any
trend in 20-30 points of nifty.
BANK NIFTY – I will rather
say recovery has not convinced me at all. Technical charts are justifying for
another round of sell off. If this happens then we can hope for the retest of
18200-18000 levels very sooner. It can be as sooner as today only. On higher
side 18700 will act stiff resistance levels. We can see sell off in the month
of December too.
