You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 15 September 2016: -
On 14 September 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 477.33 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 8.53 Crs
After a massive gap down, market has traded flat for two trading
sessions and refusing any recovery. Well, this cannot be sign of recovery
although basics of technical analysis suggests for at least partial recovery to
fill gap. So far, there is no such sign and hence I am sitting on side line for
index activity. My view is that Nifty is bounce to hit 8600 sooner or later. May
be this week or may be next week. It does not matter if it comes with a bounce
or come with no bounce.
For today’s trading session I am not expecting anything great to
happen on index. We can expect technical support in the zone of 8700 to 8675
levels. On higher side 8780-8800 levels is a zone of resistance. If market
remains in range then just avoid Nifty for trading. We may get many stock
specific reading activities. One must be note that this market is not good for
long term buying as I am getting a hint that rise has done for now. It is long
term corrective wave B which ended near 8950. So, a dip can be painful.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – Well, if you think by reading above that I will be a compulsive
long then please hold on. Above was long term view for a consequence of wave B.
For trading, we may have trading support at lower levels. Hence, I am not short
for fresh from past two days. I shorted at 8930 and booked at 8760. Now, wait
and watch for next trading opportunity. Short? Long? Short? Long? Short? Long? Short?
Long?
BANK NIFTY – As long as it
is below 20000 to 20100, we can expect levels of 19500 but this is just a raw
analysis. We need to refine with timing as timing in more important. I must say
that 19500 will not come in one go or easily. So far, my view is that one can
use higher end to short depending on market momentum as higher levels are
assumed to be for shorting.
