You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 19
June 2013: -
On 18 June
2013, FII sold INR 597.38 crs and DII bought INR 582.65 crs.
FIIs has
sold INR 3712 crs so far in the month of June in cash market. This is definitely
concerning now. They sold for six days in a row. It is reflecting that money is
flowing out when rupee is weaker. I can say that Indian Stock market is trying
its best to fight against all odd.
US market
moved higher to close at the highest levels of past two weeks. Those markets
look stable before fed meeting which is scheduled today. I am concerned for
weakness in Indian rupee. It hit 58.82 yesterday too and this was prime cause
of yesterday’s fall from high. One can say that FII were selling but it is very
important to understand the cause which drives them to sell.
It looks
like RBI and government of India left currency market for free float. They have
not taken any action yet. Now this is alarming situation and they cannot sit
ideal. For today also, stock market might be nervous for the same factor. Any
weakness below 59 will cause the test of 60. No action will drive Indian rupee
towards 63-64 levels. Indian policy makers are just best in doing one thing,
i.e. ‘doing nothing’.
Last year
also I have criticized the hope over FDI in retail. Look at current situation. No
fresh dollar came yet and rupee weakness continues. Policy maker has to
understand that they need to act more than making policy.
Technical charts are still suggesting for support at 5790-5800 levels
which is almost the range of 200 DMA. On higher side we need to stand tall
above 5860 to see further gain. Yesterday it came but failed in just few
seconds confirming the resistance.
Strategy
for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty
is higher just by 10 points showing concerns over weak Indian rupee. Immediate
technical support will be at 5800 and 5785 levels. On higher side 5860-5870
will be key resistance and threshold. There is no levels and direction for
today. All will depend on Indian rupee movement. It is better to move out of
long if Indian rupee breaks 59 also.
S&P
500
– I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that
S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.
I was
expecting 1653 and I got it on the higher side. We have double bottom at 50 DMA
and now looking good before fed meeting. It is looking like that market is
turning optimistic before Ben Barnanke’s decision. For today’s session, if it
stands above 1653 then news may be in favour of bulls. Technical charts suggest
that crossover of 1653 will give a move towards 1675-1688.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
