31 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: ANDHRABANK, LICHSGFIN and BHEL

ANDHRABANK (93.95)
Buy above 94.50/SL 93.60/ Target 96-96|| Sell below 92/ SL 92.50/ Target 91-90

LICHSGFIN (432.30)
Buy above 436/SL 432/Target 445||Sell below 425/ SL 428/ Target 418

BHEL (258.30)
Buy above 260/ SL 258/ Target 264-266||Sell below 255/ SL 257/ Target – 252-250

31 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Year-end trade may be dull due to less participation but market still has strength to move forward. NIFTY Support – 8215-8200!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 December 2014: -

On 30 December 2014, FII Bought INR 277.92 crs and DII Bought INR 160.87 crs

What has happen yesterday? Market was negative throughout the day with small trading range but finally moved little higher in last hour of trade. Eventually it has seen a 0% change by close. This is the characteristic of low volume choppy market which has inherent strength.

Good part was that it has respected the technical support of 8215 levels which was mentioned yesterday. My technical conclusion remains same. We will get technical support in the range of 8215 to 8200. Once again, I am repeating that I cannot conclude this choppiness as sign of weakness. It is just a historical cycle of low volume on year end trade.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting dull activity with lower market participation but biasing may be on positive side. Cross above 8250 will give a hint for 8280. If it can sustain above 8280 then it may try to make a move towards 8320 levels. At some point it will turn dull. What can be that level? This is beyond the scope of analysis. 8250 is a decisive level. I will not consider for strength if it stand below 8250.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – It may open near 8330 levels as indicated by SGX Nifty. It may be misguiding like yesterday with quick and many impulsive moves here and there. Premium fluctuations need to be monitored carefully. Yesterday’s low should act as good support which was at 8280 levels. Opportunity may not be great as traders are on Holiday mood to welcome 2015.

S&P 500 (USA) – US marketed has seen small profit taking with a 10 points negative close. I am not expecting much of action for the day. Technically it is on support for intraday chart. I still expect 2100 figure to emerge on S&P sooner this week or early next week. Choppiness is just a result of Holiday mood. It has no technical meaning. Historically, first week of January used to be bullish only.  

30 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: TATASTEEL, RANBAXY and TATAMOTORS

TATASTEEL (404.10)

Buy above 406/SL 404/ Target 411-415|| Sell below 401/ SL 404.50/ Target 396

RANBAXY (624.45)

Buy above 627/SL 624/Target 635||Sell below 619/ SL 623/ Target 611

TATAMOTORS (495.05)

Buy above 498/ SL 495/ Target 505-509||Sell below 492/ SL 495/ Target – 488-486

30 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not take thin volume as sign of weakness. Market is expected to be dull in the range of 8200 to 8280 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 December 2014: -

On 29 December 2014, FII Sold INR 204.22 crs and DII Bought INR 360.38 crs

It goes in expected way. It was positive but practical trading range was not big. If you observe then you can find that index was moving in less half percent. Technical charts are still hinting for up. Trading volume is not great in these days. We are in the last week of year 2014.  

After yesterday’s gain we will get support at 8200 to 8215 levels. You may not get easy trading opportunity on index due to thin volume. Do not take this thin volume as reversal in trend. This thin volume is just because of less participation in market as global market is in holiday mood on New Year eve. It has no technical meaning.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting dull activity with lower market participation but biasing may be on positive side. Cross above 8250 will give a hint for 8280. If it can sustain above 8280 then it may try to make a move towards 8320 levels. At some point it will turn dull. What can be that level? This is beyond the scope of analysis. 8250 is a decisive level. I will not consider for strength if it stand below 8250.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – It may open near 8330 levels as indicated by SGX Nifty. I am not going to consider blue chip index for big trading opportunity. It may be dull. Do not opt to trade in first hour. Technical support is at 8300 levels. Let us see what is coming to give year end trades.

S&P 500 (USA) – This is expected dead market with almost 0% change but still positive. I am still hoping for a move for towards 2100 by the end of 2014. Final target may come near 2145 on S&P. I still feel that US market will be dull with positive bias for few more days. Trading support will emerge at 2180 to 2170. Do not expect big change in index unless something unexpected happens. 

29 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Last week of December may be dull but may not get any weakness either. Technical support for the day – 8175-8150 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 December 2014: -

On 26 December 2014, FII Bought INR 39.97 crs and DII Bought INR 417.29 crs

Nifty got a good trading support at 8120 which was saved in a good way. A 50 points bounce from low and close at day’s high is indicating for at least one advance. I am not confident for rise in US market but Indian indices are not as strong. Still, it is looking strong going to New Year.

We may get a good support at 8150 to 8160 levels before getting a final support at 8120. A contracting wave ‘b’ is suggesting that market may spend a long time in wave ‘b’. It is equally giving a hint that 8375 will not take out sooner or easily.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting dull activity with lower market participation. Usually last week of December used to be dull for trade. Characteristic of last week of December is that most activity comes either in first hour or last hour. If this happen then support for the day will be at 8175 and resistance will be 8250. Market may try to pick only 50% of the given range.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – It may open near 8300 levels but premium is still very high and that a point for caution. As long as it is above 8270-8280 we should not expect any dip. As of now, in normal condition I will prefer to look for opportunity to be long only. I would not surprise to see 8350 in 1-2 days of time.

S&P 500 (USA) – US indices are on joy on New Year. I still intact on my target of 2145 for this rally and 2100 for December end. We are going close to the mentioned levels. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 2080 to 2075 levels. 1% upside may not have any great price correction. Fibonacci series may have 2125 and 2145 as Fibonacci resistance. I am expecting long term to short term top by end of January 2015. 

26 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: BHEL, POWERGRID and DLF

BHEL (254.55)
Buy above 256/SL 254/ Target 262-265|| Sell below 252/ SL 254.50/ Target 248-246

POWER GRID (136.30)
Buy above 137/SL 135.50/Target 140-142||Sell below 134/ SL 135.50/ Target 132-131

DLF (131.45) 
Buy above 134/ SL 133/ Target 137-138||Sell below 130/ SL 131/ Target – 126-125

26 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Chart set up is a hint for support to emerge now but heavy premium on Nifty January Future is alarming. A dull trade expected for the last day of the week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 December 2014: -

On 24 December 2014, FII Sold INR 2808.27 crs and DII Bought INR 509.09 crs

Elliott wave theory has already defined the resistance of 8375 as key resistance to make a top for recovery wave ‘b’. Now the dip goes in line with my expectation. In our weekly analysis, it was quoted for a strong start for the week and the weakness. Now, the next key support is at 8120 which is odd 54 points away from current levels.  

It was also predicted on Wednesday for weakness for expiry day. I was not surprised for odd sell off. Have a look, Nifty January future has carried heavy premium. It is almost 100 points. I do not think that it can continue with this kind of premium. It must have happened due short covering in fall too. History suggests that one has to be very cautious of this kind of heavy premium.

For today’s trading session, we can see flat opening. Immediate trading support will emerge at 8120. I mean that this is the only meaningful support which must be watched. I can say that developed indices, especially US indices, may not go weaker. We can see sell off in Emerging Market Indices. I do not have any carry forward on trade. My expectation is for a dull close to end the week.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – As said above, we may see dull trade on last day of the week as market man may go on Holiday mood. Only opportunity I can see is if it gives up some part of its premium. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 8260-8265. It is also true that charts are giving hint for buy to emerge from 8260 levels. Heavy premium is a caution.

S&P 500 (USA) – So far, it is going in line with my expectation. It is on all-time high but dull due to Holiday season. This dull move should continue for few days. I do not think that market participation will go great till New Year. This gives me a hint for dull next week. This does not mean for weakness. US market is strongest of all and it will remain stronger. 2070 and 2060 will emerge as good support as long as participation does not come. 

24 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: RCOM, TATASTEEL and AXIS BANK

RCOM (79.10)

Buy above 81.50/SL 80.70/ Target 83|| Sell below 78.50/ SL 79.50/ Target 76-75

TATA STEEL (394.80)

Buy above 398/SL 395/Target 403-405||Sell below 392/ SL 395/ Target 388-386

AXIS BANK (493.80)

Buy above 496/ SL 494/ Target 500-503||Sell below 492/ SL 495/ Target – 486

24 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 50 DMA support @ 8250. Break below 8250 may cause a fall towards 8215-8200 levels. Derivative expiry may go on lower side if sustains below 8250!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 December 2014: -

On 23 December 2014, FII Sold INR 444.93 crs and DII Bought INR 516.34 crs

Nifty has a high at 8364.75 yesterday before giving a diving fall. Take a note that it was 61.80% recovery after a correction from 8626.95 to 7961.35. So, it was expected and justified. More than that, we have strongly quoted for reaction to come at these levels. We took a full advantage of this fall.

We have derivative expiry of December month trade. This force to be reserve from trades today and I will act only if some good signal to trade emerges. Take a note that we have 50 DMA support at 8252 itself. This will act as key. If trades sustain below 8252 then we can expect a further dip towards 8200 levels.

Based on Elliott wave theory, high of 8364.75 is peak of corrective up wave ‘b’ which is against the main short term downtrend. I am not expecting any great dip for coming days. So far 8215-8200 is next key support. One thing is clear that if it gets follow up of selling then derivative expiry will go bearish.

For today’s trading session, we can see flat opening. Immediate trading resistance will emerge at 8295-8300 levels. If it spends time below 8250 then we can expect fresh dip. Trade below 50 DMA may put pressure on bulls to hold their long. Will this hide and seek game continues at 50 DMA.

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Strategy for Nifty January future – It is trading with very heavy premium of 77 points right now. This index future cannot carry such heavy premium for long time. Justified premium should be around 40-50 points so it has 25 points of extra premium so far. Technical charts are saying for support at 8320. Below 8320 we can expect quick 50 points cut. It is derivative expiry day so I am not expecting me to trade.

S&P 500 (USA) – So, as expected, it is on new all-time high again. This is impressive. I am looking for a move above 2100 levels. It does not matter if it goes dead near Christmas. Technical charts remain same. It is up and it will not easy to break even 2060 levels in normal circumstances. Take it this way – this is perhaps only index of the world which used to give higher high from past few days. Just prefer to be long only. 

23 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: HDFC, IDEA and HEXAWARE

HDFC (1146.30)

Buy above 1152/SL 1145/ Target 1165-1180|| Sell below 1135/ SL 1144/ Target 1120

IDEA (149.60)

Buy above 150/SL 148.50/Target 153-155||Sell below 148/ SL 149.25/ Target 146

HEXAWARE (200.30)

Buy above 203/ SL 201/ Target 208||Sell below 198/ SL 200/ Target – 195

23 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Recovery continues and turning to strength. No shorting at all. Nifty can hit newer life time again in New Year. Support – Intraday @ 8295-8280!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 December 2014: -

On 22 December 2014, FII Sold INR 335.24 crs and DII Bought INR 389.12 crs

We got 50% of recovery of recent fall in just 4th trading session. This recovery is in line with market expectation and market cycle. Even after lower crude oil price, I feel that market should go higher. The next levels that we can talk is 8375 and then a move towards 8500 too.  

We are in a derivative expiry week and I volatility will be essential part as December month was bigger compared to past few month. If dip comes in volatile move then also we should prefer to buy this dip. We saw better performance by Bank Nifty in fall and hence some price consolidation compared to Nifty is always good. Sooner a bigger move on Bank Nifty will also come which will outperform Nifty. It is the time to expect 20000 on Bank Nifty in January month.

Based on Elliott wave theory, we should expect 8375 by today or tomorrow sometime. Technical support will emerge now at 8295-8280 levels which were resistance earlier.

For today’s trading session, we can see flat opening with positive biasing. As long as it is above 8300 levels we can expect bias to remains positive. I hope this to go near 8375 at least before taking any decisive move. Let us see. If situations remain favourable then I will plan to buy dip.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – I expect a flat opening. As long as it is above 8310-8300 we can expect further extension of rally. The next big target to talk about is 8390-8400 levels. Premium fluctuation will be very high. So far, it is still a buy. One should prefer to be on buy side. Use dip to buy with proper stop loss.

S&P 500 (USA) – It went up as expected but it is still little shy at 2081 resistance marks. It may be just a pause. So far, charts are still having same words. It is should be strong in to New Year and it should stay strong till mid of January at least. I am expecting a target around 2145 levels. If this market has gained its stability then I can say that even 2060 will also act as strong trading support now. 

22 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: RCOM, BHEL and DLF

RCOM (82.95)

Buy above 84/SL 83.20/ Target 85-86|| Sell below 81.80/ SL 82.50/ Target 80-79

BHEL (259.05)

Buy above 261/SL 259/Target 264-267||Sell below 257/ SL 259.50/ Target 252-250

DLF (132.00)

Buy above 135/ SL 133.50/ Target 138-140||Sell below 131/ SL 481337/ Target – 126-125

22 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect trading support @ 8200 and @ 8150. Should we buy low or should we short top? A trendy rise will face many hurdle.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 December 2014: -

On 19 December 2014, FII Sold INR 668.85 crs and DII Bought INR 622.77 crs

So far, it is a great recovery. Moving forward, we can see some more extension of this recovery with correction coming in timely manner. We are in derivative expiry week and that makes me to feel some odd hurdle in recovery. Recovery comes with 7.70% dip from all –time high. Usual correction in trending direction used to come with magnitude of 8% or 11%. This is 8% kind of dip hence, prime trend has saved.

Sooner or later, I feel that it will go to make a 11% correction levels too but right now it is for up. When we see beginning of correction, we will take a count for it. Based on charting development, I am expecting immediate support at 8180 to 8150 levels.

Based on Elliott wave theory, first target on recovery is at 8215 and next target is at 8295 levels. Cross over of 8295 should attract more rises. This rise may be rapid in nature but effect may be neutralized due to derivative expiry where weak long will see unwinding.    

For today’s trading session, we can see flat opening with immediate support emerging at 8215 to 8200 of Nifty. Break below 8200 will invite a trading price correction up to 8160-8150 levels but this situation may come as odd result. I opt to buy a dip for better rise on strength. It depends on intraday signals.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – I expect a flat opening. We can assume that this is the levels where weak bulls will throw their stocks. We are near to expiry and hence market may be volatile on both sides. On Friday we were short on high point. For today, either we opt to be short near top or long from low. Now, high-low cannot be defined exactly. I expect a top point to be either near 8180 or after a breakout rally. Technical support comes at 8220 to 8200 or more lower.

S&P 500 (USA) – Another great rally in US market and we are in Christmas week. Usually, this is known has bullish week. S&P is almost on the verge of breaking newer high after a dip correction. It is looking like matter of time for this to enter in newer charting zone. Once it break above 2081, we can see S&P going to 2145+ levels in few weeks’ time. I have already quoted this target. I was also quoted that we will buy in correction only. We got that with good opportunity to enter with long. Now, it has ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern which can make January 2015 equally and truly bullish. Buy post-Christmas correction if you missed. 

NIFTY weekly analysis for 22 December’14 to 26 December’14

Elliott wave theory: It was fantastic week if one took long from lower levels. We are in derivative expiry week. I split it into two parts. First half should be bullish but it will attract selling from higher levels. This is retrenchment of wave ‘a’ which should get sold at top to form a top for wave ‘b’.

Market cycle: It has higher chance to misunderstand above statement. Long term chart has not yet shown any weakness. Moving into New Year, I am expecting this market to go higher. How much can it move? We have yet to find the levels. So far, for this week it is bullish.

Technical indicators: It has turned neutral but it is favouring a recover for this week. I am making my studies on different time frame for RSI. 8300 for Nifty is a key for me which I am expecting to be tested. Above 8300, it can see some impressive move.    

Charting pattern: It has already recovered well from the low of 7961. We can expect more recovery on global strength. Take a note that above 2081 on S&P, it will be ‘inverse H&S’ breakout. 

19 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: CANBK, ARVIND and AXISBANK

CANBK (435.55)
Buy above 438/SL 434/ Target 445-450|| Sell below 428/ SL 432/ Target 424-420

ARVIND (267.65)
Buy above 270/SL 267/Target 277-281||Sell below 263/ SL 265/ Target 259-255

AXISBANK (487.90)
Buy above 490/ SL 487/ Target 496-500||Sell below 484/ SL 487/ Target – 480-478

19 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Cross above 8215 should give an extended target at 8295. I am in search of long opportunity based on short covering.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 December 2014: -

On 18 December 2014, FII Sold INR 874.89 crs and DII Bought INR 648.17 crs

Bank Nifty has performed better than Nifty in recovery and this pattern should continue on the hope of policy easing and many economy related factors. No emerging market index has recovered like blue chip index of USA. Indian index were no exception. This kind of relative under performance by emerging world will continue on the weaker currency against US dollar. Those emerging market whose currency fail to recover will not see any great recovery. We need to read Indian rupee in relative term. Think – Crude is near at $55/bbl and then also Indian rupee almost hit 64 against USD.

When I am reading wave charts, I need to ignore above fact. Somehow, wave charts are saying that Indian market may have potential to deny above fundamental levels. Hence, I will not be easily short on rise. Equally, I am advising readers to be careful.    

Based on Elliott wave theory, first target on recovery is at 8215 and next target is at 8295 levels. Right now, it is not the time to point out for the top of recovery wave ‘b’. I am not in hurry unless a strong sell emerges. We need to remember than we saw a 900 point of rise without correction followed by sharp correction of 650 points afterward. Above is not a true nature of stock price in natural term. Prepare to see something newer on chart. I want to be on long side.   

For today’s trading session, we can again expect positive opening after massive rise in US market. If it stands above 8200-8220 then we can see quick fire rise. It may be a short covering rise.  Technical support stands at 8100 levels only. Today is the last trading day of the week. It is difficult to conclude how market will react after second gap up in a row.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – I was expecting a move above 8200 by yesterday itself but it will come by today. I may not opt to trade if opening quotes itself goes above 8220-8220 levels. We need to search for new intraday buy signal. Logically, 8260 is also not impossible. I will search for the opportunity on long side based on short covering.  

S&P 500 (USA) – We saw another fantastic rally in US market last night. Within three days, S&P moved from 1972 to now at 2062. Now it is less than 20 points away from its life time high. Hope, no readers are on short side. December month turn back to it’s own form. A correction came and now it is on rise. We need to take cue from momentum. I believe for some choppy session ahead and then a move towards 2100. If I am right for choppy sessions ahead then 2050-2035 will not break on down side again. 

18 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: CANBK, SBIN and LICHSGFIN

CANBK (407.50)
Buy above 413/SL 409/ Target 420-424|| Sell below 402/ SL 406/ Target 396-392

SBIN (301.75)
Buy above 303/SL 301/Target 306-309||Sell below 298/ SL 300/ Target 295

LICHSGFIN (405) 
Buy above 406/ SL 402/ Target 415-421||Sell below 398/ SL 403/ Target – 390

18 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Hopefully lo has defined for fall and recovery should come. If follow up buying comes then first target on recovery is 8215.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 December 2014: -

On 17 December 2014, FII Sold INR 1636.36 crs and DII Bought INR 1423.83 crs

Magnitude of wave 5 begins from 7723 and end at 8626. What we saw so far is almost 75% price correction in just 10 trading sessions. I can still say that it is not easy to conclude that dip is over. I was long and I still prefer to be long on this market with words of recovery. We have warning sign on Nifty as it is below 100 DMA. First need for Nifty is to stand tall above 8082 levels.

Based on Elliott wave we have some targets on upcoming recovery if comes. First target is also stand at 8215 which is almost 180 points away. Hence, recovery should be sharp if comes. Without a single positive close we cannot conclude for recovery. Today’s session will be decisive and most crucial.

For today’s trading session, we can expect positive opening. If it stands above 8082 then we can see quick fire rise. Take a note that if market sustains at high then we may see short covering rise. It is also true that weak bulls will off load their position at some quick higher levels. So, one rise will definitely get sold at high and second rise will be decisive. First profit talking may come 8100-8120. Buy every dip as long as it is above 8000. I will buy until Nifty hits 8215.

1 USD = INR 63.29____ it has done the damage. Believe me, within 15 days; once again we will see a panic weakness in Indian rupee. After shock is a natural law.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – A low came at 8007. I had a buy at 8015 to 8020. Next buy point is trade above 8100 levels. For today’s session also, I will not prefer to short this market. This is a buy market in dip as long as it holds 8000 levels. If, short has to emerge then also it should come from higher levels but that is also too far. Above 8100, we may expect quicker 100-150 points rise in few days.

S&P 500 (USA) – Finally, a 50 points intraday recovery came and sustained to give a closing at 2012 levels. This is come with some bounce in crude oil also. Technically this recovery was in demand and it came. Take a note that this is just first day of recovery so the next task for market is to get follow up of this recovery. If follow up buying come then it will extend its recovery. If not then it should get sold at high. Technical support will emerge at 2000 as I am assuming some stability now. Moving higher it will face resistance at 2035. 

17 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Can support emerge against weaker rupee against dollar. Immediate steps are the need. Logical support = 8000 @ Nifty !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 December 2014: -

On 16 December 2014, FII Sold INR 1247.24 crs and DII Bought INR 534.60 crs

Brutal sell off continues. Short term wave ‘5’ corrected by 61.80% of the magnitude. Even if recovery comes then also it will not be a chance to buy market. Wave patterns have turned for reversal signal. As of now, I am expecting fewer positive close to form a wave ‘b’ which is up in nature. My concern is about the fall which will come to form wave ‘c’. my fair assumption is for the correction of whole 5^th wave as it already corrected by 61.80%. Yes, I believe for a move towards 7800 in second round of sell off. I am not in the position to say for falling knife. Take a strong note- soft negative is also not a recovery.

For today’s trading session, we will see soft opening in negative zone. What I feel is that we will get a logical (not technical) support at 8000 levels. I must say that after more than 550 points sell off on Nifty in short time is keeping me shy from shorting too. This is just not easy either. One thing is clear, prepare for big move in the market for few weeks more.

1 USD = INR 63.55____ What does this means when crude is at $55/bbl. 101%, FIIs are selling and going home.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – Below 8100, only bears can take a victory signal. I need to go long back to the chart ti take past supports. Below 50DMA, Nifty is struggling. Technical says for support in the zone of 8050-8060 if it breaks below 8100 and sustain.

S&P 500 (USA) – A bounce which was deserve to come has come yesterday but got sold intraday itself. It is just confirming my view that year 2014 is turning to 2007. Structures are almost similar. Even if bounce comes for short term, that will also get sold on rise. Very clearly, market is taking fall in crude oil price as signal of slowing demand in economy. It requires another set of stimulus or market hold up for past 5-6 years by stimulus only. 

16 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday: HDFC, TATAMOTORS and BHEL

HDFC (1124.30)

Buy above 1132/SL 1124/ Target 1150-1160|| Sell below 1115/ SL 1123/ Target 1105-1100

TATAMOTORS (493.95)

Buy above 498/SL 495/Target 505-510||Sell below 492/ SL 495/ Target 485-480

BHEL (248.80)

Buy above 250/ SL 248/ Target 255||Sell below 245/ SL 247/ Target – 242-240

16 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another 50-60 points lower opening is possible. I am expecting support to emerge in the range of 8150 to 8135. Do not short low!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 December 2014: -

On 15 December 2014, FII Sold INR  crs and DII Bought INR 136.02 crs

Indian market has shown better sign of resilience compared to US or European market. Things turned alarming after WPI data which came at 0% after market hours. Can it give a hope of rate cut? It does not matter. It is giving an alarming sign of ‘stagflation’. It has happened last time in the year 2008. It was definitely not expected from any corner. This correction will go deeper and it may not see sooner end. One can give a discount to intraday and short term bounce. As of now, it does not look like to re-visit even 8450 levels. What about supports? I feel that levels are same – 8175 > 8135 and then final support at 8070 levels.

For today’s trading session, we will see very soft opening. In fact, it can be a big gap down after WPI data. It can be as big as 50-60 points. I do not see any reason to short from low after gap down. Its more than 400 points of fall and a technical recovery can come. It does not mean that market will improve from here. We will see another round of sell off after recovery to for a wave ‘c’.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty December future – Once again below 8135 we can expect levels of 8235-8230 levels. Below 8230, it is expected to hit 8190 levels. Will it break 8190? I have no clue before opening. If it sustain then we may see further dip of 50-60 points. A recovery is likely but a strong signal of recovery is still missing.  

S&P 500 (USA) – This is alarming and looking like out of track for medium to long term. Current wave pattern has given some similarity from December 2007 chart. If this is only a wave ‘a’ then think how bad wave ‘c’ can be. We can get maximum of one recovery. I need to add that even in 2007; fall came with fall in crude oil price and given confirmation of big dip. So, we need to conclude that world was saved due to stimulus. If this is the truth then I have no levels. I like to see market reaction only. After a bounce, I will add short and heavy short but after one bounce. 

15 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday HEXAWARE, AUROPHARMA and RCF

HEXAWARE (210.10)

Buy above 212.50/SL 211/ Target 215-218|| Sell below 208/ SL 210/ Target 205

AUROPHARMA (1156.70)

Buy above 1163/SL 1155/Target 1172-1190||Sell below 1145/ SL 1153/ Target 1130

RCF (66.95)

Buy above 68/ SL 67.30/ Target 70||Sell below 66/ SL 66.60/ Target – 65-64

15 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A gap down of 50 points coming on Nifty. Next logical support – 8175 > 8135 and finally at 8070 levels. I cannot deny the possibility of some recovery from lower levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 December 2014: -

On 12 December 2014, FII Sold INR 864.96 crs and DII Bought INR 323.41 crs

It has lost the support at 8280 levels and now looking for a drag towards another support. This may go as low as 8175 or 8135. World market fears of another slowdown after the end of stimulus in USA. Fall in crude oil price may be due to weak demand as nothing else can justify such sharp dip in such a small time interval. I strongly believe that $55/bbl should offer strong support on crude oil. This is just my first assessment in this dip. I never say a buy from $120/bbl itself. If this does not work then I will simply expect a slowdown in global economy. Remember, this may be a great change in fundamental so traders and investors should be careful on charts too. Bounce may not sustain. Based on Elliott wave, wave ‘c’ has to come after recovery wave ‘b’ which has yet to come. Wave ‘c’ will be even more brutal.

For today’s trading session, we may see opening on lower note. If it opens near 8175 and sustain then I will expect a recovery. It has already corrected for almost 400 points from its all-time high. One should wait and watch after gap down opening. It may misguide. I may opt to trade stock specific way. I have nothing on forward side so I am free to pick a direction.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – Below 8315, it was looking weak and it goes in same way. SGX Nifty is giving a hint for opening at 8220 which may be immediate support. It will not easy to trade after gap down. Especially, if it comes after 400 points of sharp dip. If it breaks the support 8220 then it can see further fall of 50 points.

S&P 500 (USA) – I have already talked about 2000 on S&P and it came very close to 2000 levels. Immediate support for recovery can be 2000 levels itself. Sooner or later, it will again go lower after a recovery. Now, every recovery will face resistance at 2020 and at 2035. A wave ‘c’ can be more brutal. Take a note that whole global indices have given almost same kind of moves in past week. 

NIFTY weekly analysis for 15 December’14 to 19 December’14

Elliott wave theory: It was giving all hints for a short term top just above 8620 levels. I was expecting a confirmation point of correction below 8500 levels. We got that desired correction. It has not done yet. It’s just corrective wave ‘a’. We will see a recovery wave ‘b’ and then a newer wave ‘c’ on downside. So far, if the magnitude of wave ‘a’ is more than 400 points then magnitude of wave ‘c’ will be also be more than 400 points. Key support for Nifty is at 8175 and then at 8135. Sooner or later, after a bounce, this will become 10% correction.

Market cycle: December is usually a good month for equity but now it has broken the trend and crude has changed the outlook of whole world. There is a strong fear of another global slowdown. Market wants a new valuation of stocks and commodity price after stimulus. It’s a bad news because I strongly believe that this market is highly overvalued. My sense is that crude oil can get a support at $55/bbl or nearby. If not then it can spread catastrophic effect on whole world.

Technical indicators: RSI has given warning for few weeks and we saw an impact last week. It shows that it was just a beginning. This prime indicator is still weak.   

Charting pattern: Previous reversal point was 8180, which has caused for correction towards 7723. So, same point of 8180 may offer some technical support. If not, then look for Elliott wave support point of 8135 and 8070. 

12 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday RELIANCE, TATASTEEL and RCOM

RELIANCE (906.15)

Buy above 915/SL 909/ Target 928-930|| Sell below 900/ SL 905/ Target 888

TATASTEEL (418.75)

Buy above 424/SL 421/Target 430||Sell below 415/ SL 418/ Target 412-409

RCOM (92.55)

Buy above 94/ SL 93/ Target 96||Sell below 91.80/ SL 92.80/ Target –90-88

12 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Is Nifty losing its support of 8280 (~8270)? If yes then we may see fresh dip again. Recovery should come to form wave ‘b’ but it’s not a compulsion.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 December 2014: -

On 11 December 2014, FII Sold INR 808.27 crs and DII Bought INR 431.93 crs

It took another dip which was almost looking certain after US sell off. We got once sign of recovery yesterday which came in line with expectation but it also got sold in last hour of trade. Based on Fibonacci retracement we have next support at 50% levels which is at 8175 only. A support needs to emerge to see a formation of wave ‘b’. I need to quote that we are getting a bigger sign of trouble. Even if the recovery comes then also upcoming wave ‘c’ can be much lower. Think, if magnitude of wave ‘a’ is more than 350 points then wave ‘c’ can also be that bigger. It is giving me a hint for the test or break of 8000 levels. This can begin immediate after then end of wave ‘b’.

For today’s trading session, we may see opening on flat note. Technical support it only at 8280 levels. I am expecting a panic selling if it sustain below 8270 which was yesterday’s low. I will give up hope of recovery if it sustains below 8270. I can just say that December may not be same as of past few years. I had long yesterday but I booked for intraday. I like to add long but I will depend on intraday cues only.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – I kept a stop loss at 8315 yesterday and bought at 8328. It has saved 8315 in every dip. Finally a recovery came but got sold at higher levels. Once again, I will keep 8315 as threshold. It is not going to be easy to trade. If fails to save 8315 then we may see some soft dip again.  

S&P 500 (USA) – Current pattern has confirmed that this December may not be same as past few years where December is known as strong month for equity. Yesterday night, it hit a high at 2055 but then correct in second half. I still have a view that support range will remain at 2035-2050 and S&P is still in same range here and there. I need to accept that S&P is settling lower and it is about to slip from current levels. If breaks current levels then it can hit levels near 2000!!!

11 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday TATAMOTORS, RELCAPITAL and ANDHRABANK

TATAMOTORS (511)
Buy above 515/SL 512/ Target 520-524|| Sell below 509/ SL 512/ Target 502-500

RELCAPITAL (538.30)
Buy above 542/SL 537/Target 555||Sell below 535/ SL 539/ Target 529-527

ANDHRABANK (89.45)
Buy above 90.50/ SL 89.80/ Target 92-93||Sell below 88/ SL 88.90/ Target – 87-86

11 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, key support is at 8280-8290 for Nifty. As long as it holds these levels, do not short from nearby levels. Panic expected if breaks 8280!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 December 2014: -

On 10 December 2014, FII Sold INR crs and DII Sold INR 519.05 crs

So we saw recovery with a low at 8317. It went as the roadmap suggested yesterday. Now, we saw mammoth drop in US market last night based on fall in energy stocks. It may give some odd levels in opening minutes. I still believe that some recovery should come as long as it holds the support of 8290 to 8280 levels.

Based on Elliott wave theory, we are in wave ‘a’. We should see a possible recovery for wave ‘b’ which can come around the levels of 8480 to 8500 levels. We should see a development of wave ‘c’ after wave ‘b’. To see a wave ‘b’, most suitable levels comes around 8280. It is not a compulsion to hit 8280 as a dot. If it breaks 8280 then things will surely turn worrisome on wave chart.

For today’s trading session, we may see another lower opening. It may be around same levels as of yesterday. Reason for this down opening will be just a drop in US market. I again advocate for recovery from levels near to 8317-8300 levels. Important support stands at 8290-8280 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – As per SGX Nifty, it looks to open at 8370 levels. Important key support will emerge at 8350 levels only. Technical chart will hint for recovery till it holds 8340-8350 levels. Do not short the dip. I see another possibility for recovery from lower levels. Note that 8280 is 38.6% price correction against the rally from 7723 to 8626.

S&P 500 (USA) – Drop in energy shares put additional pressure on Wall Street. A factor which was looking sweeter few weeks back is looking poisonous now. OPEC has warned for slow pace of recovery in economic next year. Is this alarming? Well, world was running on stimulus from year 2008 onwards and this is first time when world has to go by its own. Based on chart, I have quoted that market could fall on something unusual. It’s proven that that unusual phenomenon is unusual fall in crude oil price. I am still not on trade on this index yet. Below 2035, I do not see much scope to buy. Equally, do not short. If it is wave ‘a’ on fall then a wave ‘b’ must come with recovery. I will short for wave ‘c’. 

10 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is time to hit the beginning point (8290) of consolidating wave. Support 8290-8280. If sustain below 8280 then newer brutal wave of sell off will hit.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 December 2014: -

On 09 December 2014, FII Sold INR 221.52 crs and DII Sold INR 345.38 crs

Once again, it has broken key threshold of 8400-8390 and went for another big sell off day with a low at 8330. One wave sell off was justify for the target at 8300 which came in striking distance. Do you know that Nifty goes on monthly low with just two days of sell off? Next good support will come at 8300 to 8290 levels on Nifty. So far Nifty has corrected nearly 300 points on Nifty from all-time high. It is one third of the rally. I am seeing a possible support to emerge at 8300 to 8280 zone.

For today’s trading session, based on Elliott wave chart, a possible buy may emerge at 8300 to 8280 which I like to test. I am giving one strong assumption. If Nifty saves 8280 and bounce to give a moderate close then it may justify for a fresh move higher. If not then Nifty can go as low as 8000 levels too. December is usually not a month for big move in the market. Correction might be done near 8280 levels itself. There may not be point to short unless something major happens on global market.  

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty December future – As per SGX Nifty, it looks to open at 8350 levels which will act as immediate trading support. In that way, gap down will eat a possible 40 points move for shorts. I take 8350 as last hope for bulls. If they have to show their efforts then it’s the time now. Else a move towards 8100 will also possible in few weeks’ time. Let us see how it reacts. Read my intraday updates to get more precise view.

S&P 500 (USA) – Was the bounce so unexpected from 2035? No, definitely no. 2035 was most meaningful support. We saw a low on do at 2035 and then a 25 points intraday bounce came to close at highest point of the day. Remember, its December months. Market has added volatility for intraday but daily chart on closing basis is still looks flat. It hit a low at 2035 to fulfil demand for correction and closed at 2060 to bring market same levels to make a next move for 2100. I have quoted few days back also that I will not prefer to buy without correction. I am taking it as the demanded correction. now, it can move towards 2100.