You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
03 January 2017: -
On 02 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 260.64 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 20.66 Crs
Does yesterday’s rebound from lower levels have meaning? Well, on
technical chart it was again a move which is comparable to the bounce after
breaking 7916. Right now, we are almost on 300 points higher than the recent
low and we are on crucial resistance. I cannot deny some more upside but any
great extension of this rebound is not looking promising. We will see
resistance emerging at 8200 and then at 8240 and final resistance will be at
8275 levels.
For today’s trading I am expecting a flat start. This flat start is
only because almost all global indices are trading higher. Technical support is
at 8130 levels. Can it break 8130? I have no answer but if it breaks then only
expect weakness in the market. I must say that we are entering in the reason
season and I am expecting nervousness. This is my view and I am waiting for
good technical confirmation to trade on this view.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty January
future – SGX Nifty is showing for a start at 8200 as of now. Well, in my
view market will not able to sustain at higher side. It may give up its gain
sooner or later. Technical resistance is at 8225-8240. In the down side it will
have support at 8150. Can it break? If it breaks then we can expect a good
fall. It does not matter if it happens today or tomorrow.
BANK NIFTY – I must say
that BANK NIFTY is not as good as nifty. It will have hurdle at 18000 levels. It
may not be easier to break 18000-18100 kind of levels. If banking stocks fails
to support market then we can expect a fresh wave of dip and Bank Nifty should
be worse hit in this process. A sell signal can emerge sooner or later.
