You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 13 May
2013: -
On 09 May
2013, FII bought INR 662.88 crs and DII sold INR 476.69 crs.
Money flow
is stable but not very strong to justify this kind of 600 points run up on
Nifty. FII has invested lots of money to keep index up if we look the yearly
money flow. Momentum is driving this market. Yen is trading at 4.5 years low
which has pushed Japanese market higher even this morning.
Well, in Indian market, this is the first time that I have seen Nifty and
VIX both rising together. Theoretically, it should have reverse direction. This
is not the only concerning factor. Even momentum indicator like RSI is running
with negative divergence and it is big on hourly chart.
There are
few thresholds that are coming on Nifty chart on daily basis due to higher
wedge formation. For today it is at 6070 levels. So, 6070 will act as strong
trading support. Break of this will cause some fall. Now, the way our market is
rising, it is looking like it will never fall.
Earlier I
said that 6024-6020 has created base but this base is in favour of bulls so
far. Now 6080-6070 is looking like another base. On higher side it should take
a pause at 6120 or at 6150. Any further cross can push the market to a newer
high. Question is, can it happen without any price correction?
The way
USA market is running, technical charts are muted for bears. Believe me, this
is very peculiar rally which at least I have never seen. Suddenly, world has
turned sweeter than sweet for investment. Some Asian market is going under
correction? Will India join hand?
We have
CPI data coming today which is expected to come at 9.70% means first time below
10% after a long time. Market likes to see WPI data also which is too coming
this week.
Strategy
for Nifty May future – It is completely
beyond control based on technical indicators. On speculative basis, I can say
that we are moving towards resistance but equally, it can turn to breakout.
Trading support will come at 6080 to 6070 levels. If it breaks and sustain
below 6070 then it can see some bigger profit taking but it is still too far.
As long as it is forming high low, it may not change the trend. Better to be on
wait and watch mode.
S&P
500
– I still believe that a top should come at anywhere between 1635 to 1640 range
for this week. It is still scary. Some technical formation is giving 1660 also
but that kind of indication is expected near such levels. Till now, it has
moved by nearly 4% from its previous all-time high. I cannot say market turning
weaker as long as indices are closing near to high point of the day and this is
basic. No global market is running based on fundamentals. All has seen run up
based on central banks action. Whatever I say, fact is that my correction call
has failed so far for the month of May. Will it ever fall?
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
