You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 15 February
2013: -
On 14
February 2013, FII bought INR 321.26 crs and DII sold INR 248.99 crs.
Bears are
showing their command on Indian market with each passing day. Nifty is failing
at each recovery and resistances. I have already warned for such development. Charts
are showing that it is useless to calculate supports.
Yesterday,
we got inflation data at 6.60%, which was much better than what market were
anticipating. It seems that our economy is heading for stagflation. In general,
market finds it very difficult to recover in this kind of phases. Almost all
global market has moved sharply higher in 2012 backed by stimulus. Now Euro
zone is giving fresh sign of slow down. I have already given my view in October
2012 for the return of experiencing slowdown in few months. It is coming. Ask Super
Mario for his next great action plan.
A
technical chart for Nifty is alarming. Support if it breaks 5879 then we can
expect a move towards 100 DMA. I have already given support in the zone of 5823
to 5800 while 100 DMA is at 5828 levels.
Corporate
earning is not looking very encouraging in India after Infosys result so it was
like first result remains the best result of the market. Looking at Tata Steel,
SBIN, Tata Motors or DLF – all are bad set of numbers.
There is
another important development, Wipro and SIEMENS are moving out of Nifty. It
seems that index management team will do their best to save Nifty. It is those
frequent churning because of which market is not showing the pain of the fall.
Look at RCOM – slipped from 92 to 65. If you remember, we have quoted for 65
few days back.
Strategy
for Nifty February future – It came in
discount. It was not entirely unexpected. Technical charts were hinting for
support at 5900 but that has also broken. Now it is opening cope for 70 to 100
points of fall. Time retracement was showing for some consolidation for 2 to 4
days of trades. We manage to see only two positive closing. It will have stiff
resistance at 5940 marks. Now suppose if Nifty sustain below 5880 then a
quicker fall cannot rule out. Even if market saves today then also it will fall
on next week.
S&P
500
– It is same old story. It seems that nothing can bring US market down. Very slowly
but very steadily it is moving higher day by day. It has opened weak and closed
stronger. Technical charts are already giving massive negative divergence and
this market need to act anytime but that time is not coming yet. 20 EMA has
moved even above 1500 marks now. (Do you remember that Nifty cracked only when
it has broken its 20 EMA @ 6020). I have two thresholds for bear, first is at
1508 and next at 1500.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
