You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 22 February
2013: -
On 21 February
2013, FII bought INR 1213.57 crs and DII sold INR 228.78 crs.
Before you
get shocked with above FII buy figure I must tell you that it has an effect of Shriram
Transport block deal. Still this is a good figure. Those who make FII data as
only parameter to conclude trend may try to conclude for recovery but I am not
in those group. Very clearly, those who were buying above 6000 are forced to earn
loss.
I have
said throughout January month that market is under the formation of top. I gave
very fruitful study about India VIX, Which gave us a hint for rise from
12.57-12.50 ranges. It was VIX which gave me a hint for this fall which is
coming. I heard about multiple betting on 6200, 6300 or new life time high but
those turn out to be optimistic call only. Now VIX came near 17. You can read
fresh predictions based on VIX in my weekly analysis on my official web only on
Sunday.
It was
also mentioned 6126 as dead line levels for Nifty and it return from 6111. I
have said that rate cut will not help India and we are falling from the day we
got first repo rate cut. (Do not tell me that we are getting CRR from last
year, CRR is not a rate, it is Cash reserve ratio).
I said
about a possible H&S pattern emerging on Nifty daily chart. You can focus
on the given chart. I am sure that you need to be agreeing with me even to
little extent. Now charts are saying that even 50-60 points of recovery can be
bigger thing for market. It is also visible on that chart that Nifty is just at
100 DMA. If it breaks then it will give a push towards 5780 first and then a
panic mode (which is already on) will intensify.
I am
considering 5900 to 5920 as a very critical resistance. You can expect crack
below 5800 now and that can come any moment. Well, note is very strongly that
H&S pattern is giving a target at 5600-5548 levels.
Strategy
for Nifty February future – We have shorted
this at 5860 levels on Wednesday and till now we are getting almost 110 points.
Truly, I am not ready to give up so easily. Technical charts are suggesting that
5880-5900 will be now tougher to cross. Who knows if I can get 5800-5780 by
today itself? SGX NIFTY is hinting me for a 25-30 points of lower start and
that can push Nifty below 100 DMA. One more fall and I can be on party mode on
this weekend.
S&P
500
– I was saying about the importance of 20 EMA for S&P too. It has broken
1508. Last night it almost hit 1495 before some intraday rebound. Now 80%
chances is that no one can save US market from bears (like us). Technical
charts are suggesting for a target of 1470. Do not conclude that it can recover
from those levels. We may see more dipper fall is US market. Reasons are still
not good enough for bigger sell off. It is looking like those US traders are
betting something on Italian election which is going to be conducted on
weekend.
