You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 14February
2013: -
On 13
February 2013, FII bought INR 800.31 crs and DII sold INR 289.69 crs.
I have
already indicated for weak recovery. We have seen higher start and hit levels
of 5969. After hitting 5969, Nifty was never comfortable at higher levels. Finally
it starts falling in second half of trades. Can we conclude that recovery is
over? No, it is too early to conclude. I am still feeling for range bound
trading till Friday to satisfy chart unless something really goes wrong in
global market. I am already anticipating that global can also join fall very
soon. Till now, it is still a waiting.
What was
5967? If you take fall from 6111.80 to 5879.10 then 38.20 % retrenchment comes
at 5967.99 levels. So, rise stuck there. Take a note that it has closed below
5940 again. Global weakness can hit fuel to this fall.
Time consolidation
suggests that we should see consolidation of at least four trading sessions. So
we still have room to consolidate for today and tomorrow. Well, this is still
challenging to bet anything for positive now a day.
It does
not matter where it opens, what is important is where it closes. I am not
expecting great trading move today. Market will wait for inflation data which
is scheduled to code today. One should look for support at 5900 and 5880 only. It
is looking like decisive fall below 5880 will come by Monday only. I still like
to say that nothing is looking impossible for bears in India.
Hopes are
building for budget but a good budget for you may not be a good budget for
corporate. Near to expectation I am not expecting anything coming great on
reforms. Can you still believe that FDI in retail was a fruitful reform? Look
at GDP and IIP data. Government of India has to control its expenses as the
first step of reform. This is basic of economics but government is targeting easier
options.
Strategy
for Nifty February future – I have already
warned you from fluctuating premium. Day before yesterday it has closed with
premium of 25 points and yesterday it closed with premium of 6 points. This is
wild factor to handle and it will not end till the expiry of this month series.
I have said that I am sensing for stretch towards 5984 and it ended with a
higher at 5979. This is again developing odd patterns. I can conclude that no
higher levels can sustain in this market. Be opportunistic in short selling.
S&P
500
– It hit a high at 1524.69 levels which is highest levels of past five years. Will
it fall now? It is still tougher to conclude as this is just a pause. One should
keep an eye on 1508 to bet for any profit taking. Someday some time it has to
come under gravity. My view is still same that time has come and now market has
to respond. It is heavily over bought. Will it try to close above 1525 also? I
do not expect that to happen but it is equally true that I was not expecting
even 1500. My charts are still suggesting that we should expect a dip.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
