You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 30 August 2016: -
On 29 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 286.52 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 17.49 Crs
Have a look at the pattern generating on Nifty chart. This is turning
narrowing triangle and it stay in the range from past 45 days. This kind of
zig-zag move is most unfavourable pattern to trade. It is not that the range is
small but it is because of the reason that it can behave unpredictable way at
each end on the anticipation of breakout or break down. Analysis is simple I do
not want to add short at lower end unless it breaks 8540 levels with
conviction.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open positive as
shown by SGX Nifty as opening cues. This may happen backed by global cues. Technical
charts are suggesting that it may again hit levels of 8650 kind of levels
again. It is not easy to predict up or down. My anticipation is still same. Market
should go down for once from higher side. Will it break 8540 sooner? Do not be
active on Index unless strong signal emerges. There is a lot of noise as technical
signal.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – I do not see reasons to trade on Nifty future yet. It took a
bounce yesterday in second half but width of the triangle may go narrow. On other
hand it is not breaking higher or lower than the width. If I have to opt
trading then I may opt shorting on rise. Technical resistance can emerge at
8700 and then at 8750.
BANK NIFTY – This index is working
as cushion for blue chip index. It is saving fall as well as it is limited rise.
Let us see how it trade today. My study and levels remains same. Avoid present breakout now for long. It has
definitely not displaying the kind of strength which I was expecting above
19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not opt shorting. Well, but
below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very seriously. Technically,
19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance emerging at each higher level.
