You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
Analysis for 13 June 2017: -
On 12 June 2017: FII Net Sold – 169.24 INR Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 63.11 Crs
Welcome back. I am coming after long time and I see the market where I
left. It is dead from past 11 trading sessions. Once again people might start
thinking that this may be the sign of weakness and June factor is also in line.
Still I can suggest that the possibility is that market may not fall. So far,
high point is only at 9709 and we are at 9616.
We are heading towards second half of the month and I am advising
caution as June used to be the month in favour of bears. Still, there is no
great technical indication for toppy so far. Medium term technical support is
at 9440 which is too far from current levels.
For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on gap on higher
side as indicated by SGX Nifty. This may soon knock the door on higher side. It
is strongly advisable not to add any kind of shorting as long as Nifty spot is
staying above 9570 levels. I am expecting the retest of 9700+ levels sooner. I will
be cautious if it breaks 9570 anytime from now but I do not think that it is
going to happen easily or in normal circumstances.
Sectoral performance may go on flip flop mode time to time but overall
buyers are still interested in market price. Pricing looks expensive but it is
still attracting buyers. Can we expect reversal? Well, if this happens then it
will be least expected. So far, nothing is suggesting for reversal but caution
call is always alive.
Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small
cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and
small cap indices will be negative and blue-chip index will maintain flat to
positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative
under performance.
Strategy for Nifty June future
– It is looking like to open around 9640-9650 levels and this must be
considered as good opening. Well, I am still quoting a point as 9570 on Nifty
June future too. If it breaks then it may be first sign of trading fall. On higher
side a pause towards 9700 and not crossing 9710-9720 may result lack of buyers
at higher end. Even if the fall comes, this may not able to chance market
direction in medium to long term.
BANK NIFTY June future – I cannot
see any nearby possibility of big fall but rather it may register some profit
taking from higher end. It is still trading at 23500. To be on the safer side,
traders should avoid this index. If June factor has to rule in reverse way the
way I am expecting then it can see the beginning by this week only. I will stay
away from this index meantime and I will focus on nifty. Bank Nifty June future
has support at 23200 for trading and this is 1% far from here. This index is
turning heavy above 23500 irrespective of Nifty resilience.
